Urgent Petition To Keep RV Campgrounds Open |
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Olddawgsrule
Senior Member Joined: 20 Sep 2017 Location: New Hampshire Online Status: Offline Posts: 1014 |
Topic: Urgent Petition To Keep RV Campgrounds Open Posted: 06 Apr 2020 at 5:05pm |
With only .6% of the entire US population tested and using NY, less than 2% of the state or less than 4% of NYC (the hot spot)... Will we ever get a true picture of this.. Talking my lifetime..
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GlueGuy
Senior Member Joined: 15 May 2017 Location: N. California Online Status: Offline Posts: 2652 |
Posted: 06 Apr 2020 at 5:40pm |
The testing is still dismal. No doubt about that. OTOH, social distancing is starting to show results (we think). We are in one of the first 7 counties in the SF Bay Area to start Stay-at-home (over 3 weeks now), and California, in general, seems to be managing the outbreak for now. CA has twice the population of NY, yet roughly 1/10 the number of COVID-19 cases. Even better, there are only about 5% of the fatal cases. The Guvna was on the podium yesterday and was breathing a little easier, as our ICUs and hospitals are not being overwhelmed, and he said that we are sending at least 500 ventilators back to the stockpile so they can be used by the folks in NY and NJ.
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bp
2017 R-Pod 179 Hood River 2015 Ford F150 SuperCrew 4WD 3.5L Ecoboost |
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lostagain
Senior Member Joined: 06 Sep 2016 Location: Quaker Hill, CT Online Status: Offline Posts: 2595 |
Posted: 06 Apr 2020 at 9:15pm |
Yes, technically it is an "error" in that a particular sequence of the adenine, cytosine, guanine, and uracil may not line up exactly as is laid out in the strand of RNA being replicated, which creates a mutation. But mutations are the normal and natural part of the grander function of the evolution of all life. The point is that this virus naturally mutates regularly and frequently. Whether those mutations are significant for us is an open question. As far as I'm concerned, I'll leave it to the scientists who actually work in the field of molecular biology to explain how it really works. [And heaven knows whether I'll be able to understand what they are saying.]
Perhaps we have some molecular biologists on the board who can give us a highly technical explanation of nucleotide formation and evolution, but for the rest of us we simply need to be aware that the Covid-19 virus, like all life, regularly mutates. It is an open question how those mutations may affect the evolution of Covid-19. In the mean time we need to keep up with social isolation, wearing masks to possibly reduce inhalation of dangerous quantities of the virus and deterring hand to face contact, as well as frequently washing our hands in case we've touched a bunch of the virus that is lurking on our shopping cart or the toilet paper we were lucky enough to find. And kudos to California and it's governor for sharing their respirators with other states. That will save a lot of lives.
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Never leave footprints behind.
Fred & Maria Kearney Sonoma 167RB Our Pod 172 2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost |
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offgrid
Senior Member Joined: 23 Jul 2018 Online Status: Offline Posts: 5290 |
Posted: 07 Apr 2020 at 7:08am |
That is the core of the science behind this, errors occur in the coding of RNA base pairs during replication, sometimes resulting in modified (aka mutated) viruses which either have more, less, or the same ability to utilize their available resources (unfortunately, that's us humans). We veer away from the science when we attribute the human concept of a "grander function" to that process. That is the realm of philosophy and religion, which we should stay away from here. I attempted a lay explanation of how viruses mutate, which was requested on the forum. It certainly is an incomplete explanation, and I am no expert in molecular biology. So if I got something wrong I'm happy to be corrected. You raise a good point regarding the risk of contamination from handling of supplies we pick up at the store. There is the observation floating around that the virus survives up to 24 hours on cardboard and 72 hours on plastic or metal surfaces. I haven't seen the study behind that. Some folks (including the staff at my dad's assisted living) are using this information and assuming that leaving boxes and letters sit for 24 hours is an effective way to disinfect them. Others are suggesting segregating "contaminated" items and wiping all packaging down with disinfecting wipes (which of course assumes you can get disinfecting wipes, none to be had around here). Then there is the "contaminated" shoes and clothing you wore when you went out. Here's what I'm doing: I've set up a table in our basement where I bring in all my essential supplies and mail. I also have a second fridge there. The table has a "dirty" and a "clean" area. I wash my hands, then wipe down the supplies with a little spray cleaner and paper towels, and place the supplies on the "clean" side of the table or in the basement fridge. Then I take off my shoes, drop my clothes in the washer and clean my hands again. I let the supplies sit there for 72 hours before I bring them upstairs. Just for additional safety we've also quit eating uncooked foods like salads, in case someone sneezed on the lettuce just before I bought it.
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1994 Chinook Concourse
1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft 2015 Rpod 179 - sold |
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Pod_Geek
Senior Member Joined: 04 Dec 2019 Location: Colorado Online Status: Offline Posts: 261 |
Posted: 07 Apr 2020 at 10:40am |
April 7, 2020 Updated 10:03 a.m. ET WASHINGTON — Coronavirus patients in areas that had high levels of air pollution before the pandemic are more likely to die from the infection than patients in cleaner parts of the country, according to a new nationwide study that offers the first clear link between long-term exposure to pollution and Covid-19 death rates. In an analysis of 3,080 counties in the United States, researchers at the Harvard University T.H. Chan School of Public Health found that higher levels of the tiny, dangerous particles in air known as PM 2.5 were associated with higher death rates from the disease. For weeks, public health officials have surmised a link between dirty air and death or serious illness from Covid-19, which is caused by the coronavirus. The Harvard analysis is the first nationwide study to show a statistical link, revealing a “large overlap” between Covid-19 deaths and other diseases associated with long-term exposure to fine particulate matter. “The results of this paper suggest that long-term exposure to air pollution increases vulnerability to experiencing the most severe Covid-19 outcomes,” the authors wrote. |
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2020.5 R-Pod 195 Hood River
2018 RAM 2500 6.4L |
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offgrid
Senior Member Joined: 23 Jul 2018 Online Status: Offline Posts: 5290 |
Posted: 07 Apr 2020 at 1:29pm |
I wouldn’t get too excited about that study yet. While they are using a variety of statistical techniques to try to deal with the fact that most of the counties in their data set haven’t even had a single covid fatality yet.
Why not wait until the death rate has peaked throughout the country and is on its way down? The data set will be much better. We can’t do anything about pm2.5 exposure in the short term anyway. To me this is feels like an example of being in a rush to be first to publish. |
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1994 Chinook Concourse
1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft 2015 Rpod 179 - sold |
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GlueGuy
Senior Member Joined: 15 May 2017 Location: N. California Online Status: Offline Posts: 2652 |
Posted: 07 Apr 2020 at 2:11pm |
I agree. There are too many moving parts to validate that kind of theory. There was this interesting tidbit in the NYT this morning:
That is not too far from an exponential growth. Anyone want to place a bet on when the US exceeds 1 million COVID-19 cases?
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bp
2017 R-Pod 179 Hood River 2015 Ford F150 SuperCrew 4WD 3.5L Ecoboost |
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offgrid
Senior Member Joined: 23 Jul 2018 Online Status: Offline Posts: 5290 |
Posted: 07 Apr 2020 at 4:28pm |
Probably depends more on how fast the increase will be in testing capacity than the increase in infections. IOW, we're likely pretty close to that number already, if not over it, we just don't know it. Iceland, which has done more testing than any other country, has 4600 cases per million pop, which would be the equivalent of 1.5 million cases in the US. It's still only tested 8.5% of its population, we've only tested 0.6 percent of ours. Most European countries have tested around 1-2% and are in the range of 2000 cases per million, or about 500-700,000 equivalent in the US. The more you test the more cases you have. |
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1994 Chinook Concourse
1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft 2015 Rpod 179 - sold |
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lostagain
Senior Member Joined: 06 Sep 2016 Location: Quaker Hill, CT Online Status: Offline Posts: 2595 |
Posted: 07 Apr 2020 at 5:18pm |
Though I think testing is essential if we are to get a handle on this awful disease, we also have to keep in mind that testing is retrospective only. It gives us tremendous amount valuable data and helps the states formulate strategies that may be more effective in controlling the spreading disease. But we have to keep in mind testing is only one element in a broad based fight against this virus.
We need urgently to develop and put to use tests that can give us an "instant" result, so that the person tested and medical care authorities can know the result in minutes. Test results that come a week later are useful for statistical purposes, but have no benefit at all insofar as helping people know whether they should isolate themselves. Furthermore, someone may test negative, even in an instant readout test, and may get infected on his/her way home in a stop to pick up something at the grocery store. For we ordinary folks trying to survive this situation and not get infected, perhaps the best strategy is to pretend that everyone, apart from the people we live with, is infected and act accordingly. Those who insist on participating in group gatherings are playing Russian roulette with their lives, .... and the lives of the rest of us. Perhaps to pass time, like the family in England who sang the parody of Les Misérables while confined in their home (in case you missed it: <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dy7z2t-JGA>) one could work on the a variation of the Monte Python song: Galaxy DNA Song <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEgTv68t-hE> which will undoubtedly help you understand the double helix. |
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Never leave footprints behind.
Fred & Maria Kearney Sonoma 167RB Our Pod 172 2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost |
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Olddawgsrule
Senior Member Joined: 20 Sep 2017 Location: New Hampshire Online Status: Offline Posts: 1014 |
Posted: 08 Apr 2020 at 7:16am |
I'll play >April 23rd. Trying to optimistic and believe some of what I'm hearing. Speaking new cases.
I do agree, we are probably over that mark now and don't know it. Stay safe you all.
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