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offgrid View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Topic: Urgent Petition To Keep RV Campgrounds Open
    Posted: 04 Apr 2020 at 4:50pm
I got something more concerning from reading this. 

1) The test subjects got Covid-19 from international travel, domestic travel, being on a cruise ship with sick ppl, close household contact, providing healthcare for sick ppl, working in the same open space building as sick ppl (maybe, although some of them have different strains), and for other unknown reasons. Pretty much any possible way you can think of.

2) Sars-CoV-2 mutates pretty slowly relative to other viruses (about 1-2 base pairs (single nucleotide variations) per month. 

2) Despite this, there are already 2 different viruses with lineage from Wuhan, 4 from Europe,  13 from WA, and 11 from they're not sure where from. That's 30 (one place they say 29?)  different viruses all in just the small population of subjects that were tested in a relatively small area of NorCal.

3) The researchers seem to be suggesting that we might need to shut down interstate as well as international travel, besides all the other stuff. 

The problem is that once this thing gets going in a region for awhile you get multiple strains going in lots of hosts (that's us) and each one is subject to further mutations and on and on. Then those varying strains get transmitted back and forth and you wind up with lots of versions of the virus in any given area. The population gets reinfected with strains from other areas because ppl are so mobile today. Makes it harder to come up with a vaccine and increases the risk that you can get vaccine resistant or more virulent strains running around. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Apr 2020 at 6:24pm
Originally posted by offgrid

2) Despite this, there are already 2 different viruses with lineage from Wuhan, 4 from Europe,  13 from WA, and 11 from they're not sure where from. That's 30 (one place they say 29?)  different viruses all in just the small population of subjects that were tested in a relatively small area of NorCal.

There were 29 test subjects (UC1 though UC29) with what they identified as 8 "lineages", or strains (my layman's term, which may confuse the issue). The way I interpret it, it takes more than 1 SNP change (Single Nucleotide Pair) to make a new lineage. They used the term SNV (single Nucleotide Variant). The term I'm used to (and I'm not a geneticist) has been SNP.

I could not find a reference to the CA1 and CA2 in the text, so I'm not sure what those are.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Apr 2020 at 7:52pm
Yeah I’d also seen snp before but not snv. Looks from Wikipedia like snp is a single nucleotide polymorphism which occurs in at least 1% of a population while an snv is a single nucleotide variant with no percentage of population attached. Maybe snv is used for viruses bc with rna based organisms the genome varies so much that they can’t establish a percentage basis for any one mutation?

Anyhow seems like the main takeaway is that there are lots of variants of the virus from multiple states and countries floating around the Bay Ares. And all in only the first couple of months. This thing gets around.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Apr 2020 at 9:53am
Originally posted by offgrid

Yeah I’d also seen snp before but not snv. Looks from Wikipedia like snp is a single nucleotide polymorphism which occurs in at least 1% of a population while an snv is a single nucleotide variant with no percentage of population attached. Maybe snv is used for viruses bc with rna based organisms the genome varies so much that they can’t establish a percentage basis for any one mutation?

Anyhow seems like the main takeaway is that there are lots of variants of the virus from multiple states and countries floating around the Bay Ares. And all in only the first couple of months. This thing gets around.
I consider the Bay Area kind of a microcosm for the rest of the country. People around here are from literally everywhere. All states. All countries. All races. All religions. ... and this is among the first of the detailed studies of the nCOV virus in the wild. I think it is good primer on what the rest of the country is seeing, or about to see.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Apr 2020 at 2:25pm
Insofar as the variants of the virus, likely you are right about the Bay Area.  They are probably seeing many, if not most, of the major expressions of the ever evolving disease.  

But with respect to trying to control the virus, there are many parts of the country where people seem to want to defy the reality of viral infection and it's mode of spread, as though they are magically immune.  The Bay Area, like many other locales, will probably fare better than places like Florida, where they seem to think they are somehow protected from the infection.  
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Apr 2020 at 2:58pm
One of the dozen podcasts I listen to ("Science VS" (pronounced "Science Versus")) had a researcher on this week talking about the wide variance in people's reactions to this virus. He explained that part of the issue is the inflammation caused by he virus, but he said the real kicker for those that get into trouble is the second part where some people react with a sort of auto-immune reaction. In other words, the virus isn't killing them, but their runaway immune systems overreacting to the threat.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Apr 2020 at 3:08pm
The human brain is not equipped to intuitively grasp exponential growth. Many studies have been done on this, and ppl invariably underestimate it, dramatically. You have to use math. 

Take the classic riddle of the lily pads. Say on day one there is one pad on the pond, on day two 2 pads, on day 3 4 pads, and so on. Now suppose on day 48 the whole pond is covered. When was the pond half covered? Day 47. On day 40 the pond was only 0.4% covered, not even noticeable, but 6 weeks had passed from the first lily and there was only a week to go.

Now add to that that we are not seeing the present situation, because of the lag time it takes to identify and test sick ppl. And even then we only see a small fraction of the sick ppl. Its like the lily pad riddle except that you are looking at a grainy picture from 3 days ago that missed most of the lily pads. 

That's why ppl in so many places around the world have ignored the problem until it was too late, common sense just doesn't work when faced with this kind of problem. You have to have good experts  and give them the authority to do things that seem very counter intuitive. Unfortunately, trust in experts is in short supply these days. 

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Apr 2020 at 3:40pm
Taking Glue's warning and believing the article is way over my head, so I'll ask.

First I heard of mutations of the virus. Leads to many questions but I'll limit them:

Mutation happens by? My thought is it mutates as it succeeds through a person of maybe a better immune system? Or maybe a cultural thing? Differences in what we eat?

These mutations: This means if you had a strain, you can get another, correct? Eight defined by 29 individuals... Any reports out of NYC and what they are finding? Are we to expect 'several' more variations (as in dozens). Did H1N1 mutate like this?

Are any of these variations becoming air-borne?  


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Apr 2020 at 3:51pm
I'll leave it to those who are far more capable than I to answer Olddawg's questions.  

But, a comment about the exponential spread comments of offgrid.  Not only do we have a hard time conceptualizing exponential growth in the abstract, as a practical matter, we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg in regard to the true number of infections. 

An anecdotal example.  I just spoke to someone today who probably is infected.  She is not gravely ill but has many of the identified symptoms of Covid-19.  She called her doctor and was told that she probably has the virus, but should not come to a medical care facility unless her symptoms significantly worsen.  Thankfully, she says she is improving, but that could suddenly change.  She has not been formally diagnosed and is not counted in the totals of infected people for statistical purposes.  I suspect that there are probably hundreds of thousands in that situation.  Sadly, we have no real idea.  I hope I'm wrong.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Apr 2020 at 4:14pm
Originally posted by lostagain

But, a comment about the exponential spread comments of offgrid.  Not only do we have a hard time conceptualizing exponential growth in the abstract, as a practical matter, we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg in regard to the true number of infections. 


+1.

That's what I was trying to allude to with my clumsy analogy to grainy pictures not seeing all the lily pads. 

The truth of the matter is that the US is actually doing much better now in terms of testing. We're at about half a percent of total pop.  No one is really testing much. The very best countries right now, other than tiny places like the Faeroe Islands, Iceland, and Lichtenstein, are in the 2% range. And still, unless you're really sick they don't want you to come in for a test, simply because if you are infected you increase the chance to spread it and there's nothing they're going to do for you except send you home anyway.
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