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Topic ClosedUrgent Petition To Keep RV Campgrounds Open

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Woodmiester View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Topic: Urgent Petition To Keep RV Campgrounds Open
    Posted: 19 Mar 2020 at 1:22pm
Good point oldawgsrule.  However, I have read and can find anything that reads the way I want it!  Who are these so called "experts"??

So, by going by your experts rule, it is okay to jump out of an airplane using a parachute because only  .03 percent of the chutes fail to open!!.................No thank you. 

 I can make my decisions based on my own feelings, fears, knowlege or whatever  without being accused of Mass hysteria.  Give me a break!!

We are 77 years old, healthy and very active.  We got that way by prudent behavior and making sound decisions.

Please don't label people or play identity podaticsSmileSmileSmile

Have a great summer and good travels!
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Mar 2020 at 1:33pm
It isn't just a question of your own vulnerability vis-a-vi the mortality rate for your age group (or vulnerability due to a weakened immune system). It's a question of getting infected and passing on the virus to others who may be very vulnerable.

It is far from hysteria to express concern about getting sick on the road and realizing that it can affect many, many others, not just your travel companion [such as health care workers trying to save you].  It's just good common sense and a recognition of our responsibility to protect everyone; the common good.

As for mortality rates, be very careful about assessing them.  Without accurate data on infection rates, it is impossible to calculate the mortality rate.  All we see is the tip of the iceberg.  This is a disease that is contagious well before symptoms are exhibited. 

In the Spanish flu pandemic, there were attempts to understate the data on infections, indeed one newspaper was charged with sedition for publishing accurate information.  When all was said and done, about almost 5% of the world's population was killed by the disease.  As with that flu, we have no anti-viral drug that can treat it.  


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offgrid View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Mar 2020 at 1:47pm
The fatality rate data is all over the map. The numerator is easy, it’s the number of fatalities in the given country or globally. The variable is what you take as the denominator. You can’t use the current number of cases as in the early phase of an epidemic many of those, if not most, have not resolved yet. So it’s easy to underestimate the fatality rate that way. If you look at the current data from Italy in that light it looks really bad, the fatality rate is over 8% and only about 20% of the cases have resolved so far.

OTOH, the denominator also obviously depends on how many people are getting tested, as many mild cases can go unreported and that varies a lot by country based on how restrictive they’re being with their testing, resulting in the likelihood of an overestimate in those places with few test kits available.

In the SARS epidemic WHOs original estimate was about 4%, it wound up being closer to 10%. I’m pointing this out not to trigger more fear, simply to say that we just don’t know yet, and prudence tells us to take all sensible precautions until we know more.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Mar 2020 at 3:44pm
On a positive note, I worked on my trailer today in pleasant weather. Normally I would be done with that and headed out on first fishing /camping adventure. Looking forward to some nice weather to do my maintenance and needed repairs. +1 to LostAgain, I'm not putting anybody at risk and no one is doing same to me.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Mar 2020 at 4:21pm
  I have started planting our Spring vegetable garden it's not a bad Idea to have a vegetable garden in these uncertain times.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Mar 2020 at 6:34pm
I would have washed my truck and trailer, but the pollen levels are very high. Spring is when everyone in NC drives a yellow vehicle. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Mar 2020 at 6:35am
Wow... 

Justify/believe as you all wish. I'll go with the information I trust (backed by math). The test numbers are rising, which is good and the mortality rate is not, still holding around 1.5%.


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Mar 2020 at 7:03am
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Mar 2020 at 9:04am
At this point, no math is reliable in the USA because there is insufficient data.  Your calculations may be correct, but the numerator and denominator are not reliable.  As they say in the computer data business:  Garbage in, garbage out.

Olddawg, you don't seem to get it.  It isn't only your exposure to Convid-19 that matters.  It's the spread of the disease to all of us.  You don't know for a fact that you are not infected or won't be infected in your travels by someone else.  The disease is contagious well before symptoms start.  If you are out and about, you may be infecting others and not even know it.

We all have a responsibility to our communities, to stay out of harms way trying to not become infected and if we are infected not spreading the disease, especially to the most vulnerable.  The logic you seem to be using is the same logic as is being used by the kids on the beach in FL for spring break.  It can't happen to me.  Those kids on the beach will, as certain as the sun rises, pass the virus on to the elderly in FL and we will see the consequences.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Mar 2020 at 10:04am
Personally, I am not going to go to where large crowds are expected, Our plans for Alaska look like they are out the window for this year. However, we may go to visit our daughters instead. I like that the 'Pod makes it easier to maintain social distancing.
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