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offgrid View Drop Down
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Posts: 5290 		Direct Link To This Post Topic: Urgent Petition To Keep RV Campgrounds Open
    Posted: 21 Mar 2020 at 10:04am
Fear is a key survival mechanism in essentially all mammals including humans. It keeps us all alive. No one gets to be the age most of us have reached without experiencing fear many many times. It’s a good thing. So I’m perfectly happy to acknowledge I fear the corinavirus. I fear towing my rpod with too much rear weight distribution too.

Fear becomes a bad thing if we can’t integrate that fear into a reasoned response. That is where the ability to analyze data and communicate with others who may have more experience with the phenomenon triggering the fear sets humans apart. But fear is still the underlying motivator, as it was for me to go out and weigh my dang trailer tongue the first time.
Nothing to be ashamed of. Fear of coronavirus won’t stop me from living my life any more than fear of trailer sway stops me from towing my rpod. But both have changed my behavior.

Now it’s motivated me to take a deeper dive into the mathematical models behind epidemic expansions and contractions. It’s fascinating really. If anyone is interested here is an article on the kind of thing we might expect going forward. Buckle up, it’s prolly gonna be awhile.

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615370/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing-18-months/?fbclid=IwAR1YYOim2N6RUoqoQrboSWBAwNfIgP3BMYha6DrOt0JR_fpFzdYra16BsSU
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lostagain View Drop Down
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Posts: 2587 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Mar 2020 at 10:29am
Here is an interesting assessment of the Covid-19 situation here in the USA:  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

Of note, the article specifically points out one of the more serious problems is that people may spread the virus while they are symptom free and unaware they are infected.

I agree with offgrid's comment about fear.  Fear becomes destructive when it leads to irrational acts or inaction.  Fear that motivates people to find well thought out solutions is what keeps all of us alive.  Unfortunately, in our language we often confuse the two and sometimes use the the word fear as a synonym for cowardice.  They are not the same.  
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Posts: 1014 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Mar 2020 at 3:04pm
Originally posted by GlueGuy

I usually check this site once a day. It's driven by data from Johns Hopkins University. You can look at global data or check individual countries. Worldwide fatality/infection ratio is at 4.1% this morning. Infections per day exceeded 29,500 on March 20.


Very good site. Info is very close to what I'm following. 
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lostagain View Drop Down
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Posts: 2587 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Mar 2020 at 9:48pm
For all who wonder about the spread of a pandemic here is an outstanding documentary on the issue produced by the BBC.  It last a little over an hour, but it's very informative.
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offgrid View Drop Down
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Posts: 5290 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Mar 2020 at 11:16am
Originally posted by lostagain

For all who wonder about the spread of a pandemic here is an outstanding documentary on the issue produced by the BBC.  It last a little over an hour, but it's very informative.

A very good documentary, I just finished watching it. While they were modelling a flu pandemic I think the results are pretty representative of Covid19. One key number mentioned is Ro, the average number of ppl infected by someone with the disease. That was assumed to be 1.8 in the documentary.  With that number and modelling the movement and contacts of the population they ended up with over 2/3 of the population of the UK getting infected within about 3 months. The initial numbers for Ro in covid19 are in the range of 2-3, so not good. 

Those numbers assume no changes in ppl's behavior. But Ro depends on behavior, so social distancing, hand washing, wearing a mask, remaining at home, etc all act to bring down Ro. If you can get it below 1 then the epidemic will die out. That's why its so important to follow those guidelines. 

In the documentary they used anonymous cell phone data from volunteers to model the hypothetical spread.  S Korea and Singapore have gone much further and use actual real time cell phone data to back track infected individuals and identify their contacts. They even publish the locations and times (but not names) where infected people were, so ppl that might have been infected can go get tested. Not so good for personal privacy but very good apparently for curbing spread of infections. 
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GlueGuy View Drop Down
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Posts: 2628 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Mar 2020 at 2:26pm
The NYT had a nice calculator on their web site that allowed you to adjust R0 (transmissibility) and the fatality ratio. With a R0 of 2.2 and fatality ratio of about 1%, the numbers got high really quickly.

Right now the global fatality rate is right about 4.3%. If you look at just Italy, it's around 8%. I believe (I don't know, just speculating) that a very large percentage of infections are never reported or maybe even known. I've seen guesses of as many as 80-90 percent are not recorded. So that would modulate the overall death rate downward. 

Then you have really anomalous numbers from Russia (1 death. Really?!?) and India (10 deaths?!?). Those kinds of numbers are really difficult for me to believe.
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offgrid View Drop Down
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Posts: 5290 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Mar 2020 at 4:59pm
I agree that in countries not doing much testing (including the US so far) the mortality rate will tend look higher than it would be if all the cases were identified. 

OTOH, in countries that are in the exponential phase of growth in cases (like in the US, Italy, and many other European countries), the mortality rate calculated by simply dividing deaths by total cases will be too low, because most of the new cases have not resolved yet and many will inevitably end up resulting in death. If it typically takes say a week from when a case is identified for the disease to resolve one way or the other then you have to take the total deaths today and divide by the total cases a week ago. 

 Then there is the suspicion that deaths are not identified as actually being from the virus (likely to be the case in India and many other poorer countries) or perhaps the cause of death is being hidden (which has been suggested is happening in Russia). So its all over the map.

For these reasons I'm paying close attention to the data from S Korea which is (1) presumed to be pretty transparent and accurate, (2) involves more complete testing than probably any other country and (3) has brought the virus more or less under control, although they still have more open than closed cases. Their fatality rate on closed cases is running at 3% right now. 

That doesn't mean that the overall world fatality rate will wind up at 3%. S Korea has for the most part had enough hospital beds and, importantly, enough ventilators, which are critical to survival for the sickest patients. Italy has not had enough, and unfortunately, neither do we.
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Posts: 461 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2020 at 11:53am
Many of us are following the COVID19 data. I've been seeing notices that some of the sites presenting Johns Hopkins data might be malicious (malware, viruses, trojan horses). Here is the link directly to Johns Hopkins:  https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
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Posts: 5290 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2020 at 12:16pm
I like the presentation on this site:


One benefit of this site is that you can view the graphical data by either linear or log plot. When something is increasing exponentially like Covid-19 cases are many places, the eye is not good at assessing whether or not things are still accelerating or beginning to slow down when plotted linearly. On a log plot its pretty easy to see if measures are having an impact or not. An exponential increase will look like a sloped straight line on a log plot. 

Our case data for instance is sadly still showing a sloping straight line so we haven't seen any real reduction in the rate of infections yet. Italy's infection rate appears to be beginning to flatten out finally. Spain might be starting to, a little.  S Korea and China have horizontal log plots which means they have things under control right now.
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GlueGuy View Drop Down
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Posts: 2628 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2020 at 1:41pm
No question this has started to exceed the capabilities of a linear graph. Depending on when you estimate it started (November or December) it took ~~ 4 months to reach an infection total of 100,000. We hit 200,000 12 days later. 300,000 happened in just 3 days. We blew past 400,000 in about 2 days, and we will probably hit near 500,000 today (yesterday's total (March 24)was 438,000).
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