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StephenH View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Topic: Time for Camping?
    Posted: 01 May 2020 at 6:13pm
Masks, yes. Gloves, debatable. I've seen too many gloves in parking lots where people have just thrown them there instead of removing properly and placing in a bag to dispose of properly. Hand sanitizer, or even better, hand washing is as effective. I don't agree with masks any time off site. That would depend on where, and if any other people were around. If around others, yes. If nobody else is around (e.g. in a kayak on a lake), then why would a mask be needed? Common sense and personal responsibility come into play.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 May 2020 at 7:38pm
Originally posted by StephenH

These are the ones with the loud generators, the blasting "music", and leaving their trash for others to pick up. I will have to add that the "experts" can often be mistaken.

Personally I don't like to hear anyone's music, regardless of the genre, while camping. I'm looking for a natural experience, not an urban one. That's one reason I got rid of the class A and got an rPod, smaller is better to get to the nice quiet out of the way spots. 

As to the comment that "experts can often be mistaken", I'm honestly not sure what to make of that. Does it make more sense to take guidance from non-experts? Who is more likely to get it wrong, the experts who have made that subject matter their career or someone who knows nothing about it? And why would someone who doesn't understand a subject want to pontificate about it anyway? What is their agenda? 

Frankly I am concerned about the prevalence of this apparent negative attitude toward expertise. We used to respect and recognize our experts and encourage our young people to get the education needed to achieve that expertise in their chosen field. Now not so much it seems, even though we live in an age where the global economy is more knowledge based than ever. This doesn't bode well for the future I don't think. 



 


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 May 2020 at 8:28pm
Unfortunately, sometimes experts are so narrowly focused that they can't see how their area of expertise fits in with the world at large. I'm tired of "experts" saying that man-made global warming is established science. At that point, it becomes like a religious dogma and anyone who dares to disagree is treated as a heretic. It is the same with this virus. For the experts who say that the isolation is the best way to go about this, there are epidemiologists and doctors who say that it is the wrong way. We have plenty of data, lots of knowledge, but unfortunately, little wisdom. Experts are people and even they can have personal agendas. I fit were not the case, we would have no need for new science textbooks every few years as what was once accepted is shown to be false with further research.

Point in fact: The VA tested hydroxychloroquine and concluded that it did not help, and in their opinion, made things worse. What was not stated in the report was that it was only given to the most ill patients and the control group was younger patients that weren't in as bad a shape. It turns out the doctor conducting the study works for a drug company associated with a competing product. Other doctors have said that in their practices, if hydroxychloroquine was administered early with azithromycin and zinc that it sped the recovery and none of the patients so treated got so bad as to require hospitalization. Which side should I believe? Meanwhile, Remdesivir is possibly helpful, but 15 days to 11 days while significant is not as good as something that given earlier, might cut the disease progression to eliminate the need for hospitalization.


It isn't a peer reviewed, double-blind study, but I am willing to accept "anecdotal" evidence from doctors who have been observing the results.

As to the topic, we can't stay shut down. The original purpose was to "flatten the curve" so that new cases would not overload the emergency rooms and the ability to care for the most ill patients. Given that we now have increasing surplus supplies of ventilators and that other items of PPE are being manufactured at an increased pace, the purpose of the initial order has been met. People need to get back to work.

Based on all of this, I feel confident that, taking appropriate precautions, going camping will not be a problem. For people without a self-contained unit, it would be. Our next trips will see us using our R-Pod's shower instead of campground showers, etc.We will be ready to go when state parks and campgrounds open up.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 May 2020 at 10:07pm
As the famous comedian/philosopher said
" good judgement comes from experience. experience usually comes at the expense of bad judgement" or something like that
so, experts do indeed have their place, but we still need to evaluate and question anyone's opinion. Opinions are based on knowledge, experience and other unknown factors that are influential to the opinion givers. True facts and science are not generally influenced . sometimes it's hard to discern the truth
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 May 2020 at 6:26am
Originally posted by StephenH

Unfortunately, sometimes experts are so narrowly focused that they can't see how their area of expertise fits in with the world at large. I'm tired of "experts" saying that man-made global warming is established science. At that point, it becomes like a religious dogma and anyone who dares to disagree is treated as a heretic. 


The fact that you started this paragraph with  "sometimes experts are so narrowly focused that they can't see how their area of expertise fits in with the world at large" tells me that you are allowing your view of the potential implications of a scientific theory to color whether you accept the theory or not. The  potential economic impact of addressing climate change has no bearing at all on the validity of the theory itself. Of course those impacts have everything to do with what society does about it, but that is a different matter. Or put more simply, don't shoot the messenger. 

So certainly anthropogenic climate change is established science. The term "theory" in science is not used the same way as in the common vernacular. In common language, a "theory" can be any untested or speculative guess. In science, it describes an explanation that has been tested and is widely accepted. 

Anthropogenic climate change fits that definition, as does general relativity, quantum mechanics, evolution, and many others. All of those theories have been modified or expanded upon over the years as more data has been gathered, and its certain the same will occur with climate theory.  That doesn't mean its not an established scientific theory.

Anyone can disagree with an established scientific theory, feel free. But don't expect actual scientists working in that field to engage in that debate with you, they have a job to do. It's no different than say if I asked a plumbing contractor to fix my leaking pipes with duct tape. The plumber is an expert in that field and knows that won't work, he'll pass and move on to the next job. That doesn't mean that I'm some kind of a religious heretic, it just means that he has other things to do with his time that he feels are more worthwhile. All of us make those kind of decisions every day. I wouldn't take it as a personal insult that he passed on my job. Since it only impacts me and I'm a stubborn old guy I might put on the duct tape myself and see what happens though.Embarrassed

The difference between my leaking plumbing, Covid 19, and climate change is that the latter two and what we do or don't do about them have serious impacts on the broader community, which makes the response political by definition. Separating the knowledge from the actions taken based on that information is what separates science and politics. What I strongly disagree with is confounding the two. Denigrating scientific expertise has become a technique used to advance political agendas by hindering the development of a shared understanding of the actual problems. 

As to Covid 19, it is very early days and much is still unknown, and certainly there hasn't been time for proper peer review.  Townhall has a very clear political agenda. 

But in the meantime there are known effective responses that we are ignoring. South Korea's actions for example have been highly successful by any reasonable definition. Their outbreaks started before ours, but their death rate per capita has been tiny, its currently only 2.5% of ours. They never broadly locked down, and their gpd only shrunk by 1.4% in Q1, compared to our 4.8% decline. Just maybe we could learn something from them? But for some reason I've never understood, it seems to be very difficult to get Americans to look outside our own borders for solutions. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 May 2020 at 8:30am
Part of South Korea's success is in how people interact. Hand shaking and hugs are not common. Also, if anyone feels ill, he/she wears a face mask. Both of those contribute to a lower rate of spread. What they are doing to treat cases, possibly much earlier than we start treating, is helping but we don't hear in the news how they are treating this.

As for science, scientists can and do confuse cause with effect and later on have to change their theories. My citation for doctors (who may not be "scientists" per se, but are conducting research show that there is conflict in opinion as to the validity of hydroxychloroquine, which was my point. Low-dose use with antibiotic (alternative if Zithromycin is not tolerated) plus zink given earlier seems to cut the severity in most patients. Remdesivir may be effective if it reaches the latter stages, but the cost will be many times that of hydroxychloroquine, which is generic and inexpensive. Which one will the drug companies want to make? Right now, the major source of hydroxychloroquine is India.

I wouldn't use duct tape. Perhaps Gorilla tape.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 May 2020 at 9:27am
I heard experts tell us that 2 million people were going die of cv19. They appear to be very wrong. The experts said the earth was flat, I believe they were wrong. [post edited by techntrek] would say that in any situation that has variables, there is no such thing as experts. You can only guess or assume how the variable will go. At best, your making an educated guess. The most world altering inventions were almost all discovered by mistakes. Experts that were looking for answers to other things. In many cases an experts opinion is guided by other parameters such as cost, or availability, or the bias against something they tried 20 years ago, not working, and won't even consider now. I think it's important to seek advice from someone with vast experience in something, but I still reserve the right to question their opinion. 

[I edited this post due to political content - techntrek]
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 May 2020 at 9:30am
+1 to OG.

The beauty of science is its methodology.  No other human endeavor tests and retests established doctrine as does science.  No, science hasn't reached perfection and does go off track from time to time, especially when science gets influenced by large research funders who demand, either subtly or not so subtly, that the results are skewed in their favor.  But by and large, it sticks to the objective evidence better than everyone else.  

In non-scientific human activities, that are not peer reviewed or are peer reviewed based on whether it conforms to an earlier body of accepted beliefs, we tend to make up what we believe and treat it as fact when it is really an invention of the human mind.  Our arguments tend to be over whether the current belief fits an established doctrine and, where it doesn't, whether it is expedient to change the doctrine.  In my profession, for example, we argue about the law as though it is something that exists apart from human beings imaginations, but that is pure poppycock.  The entire legal system is a creation of the human mind that we "adjust" whenever we feel like to achieve the results we think we want at the moment.  So when we talk about legal "theories" we are arguing inside a tautology, or a manmade fiction filled with circular reasoning.  Science, on the other hand, is always testing, retesting, and looking outside the accepted doctrine to see if it is really describing the world objectively.

StephenH, you are confusing scientific hypotheses with scientific theories.  The use of various drugs to fight SARS-CoV-2 are being examined as we "speak."  Their efficacy is not scientific "theory" but rather a hypothesis that is being tested.  In the testing of the hypothesis that one or another drug actually works, plenty of mistakes will be made.  Research, when rushed, tends to not stand the test of time and peer review.  Preliminary findings in the testing of an hypothesis are often wrong.  This was the case with Hydroxychloroquine, which we are now finding has little effect on the virus and increases the mortality rate for those who take it.  

It is not that drugs like that should not be tested, but the testing process is inherently a trial and error process that will raise hopes, then dash them on a rocky shore when they turn out to be wrong.  The problem with the lay world is we tend to cling to these false hopes and blame the scientists when they prove that what we wished for does not achieve what we wanted.  Humans are impatient and want immediate solutions.  Objective reality doesn't conform to our wished for instant answers.  We are going to have to get used to the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in our lives for a long time to come.  Whether we can develop a vaccine or drugs to fight the disease are still open questions.  We must, if we are going to defeat this terrible disease, use the tools we have to stop the spread while we give real science, not radio announcers and politicians, the space and time they need to test each hypothesis and subject it to peer review so that whatever drugs we find will actually be efficacious and not dangerous to use.  There are plenty of chemical compounds that exist in the world that will kill the virus.  The problem is we have to sort through them to see which won't also kill the patient.  
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 May 2020 at 10:04am
Originally posted by mjlrpod

I heard experts tell us that 2 million people were going die of cv19. They appear to be very wrong. The experts said the earth was flat, I believe they were wrong. [removed by techntrek] I would say that in any situation that has variables, there is no such thing as experts. You can only guess or assume how the variable will go. At best, your making an educated guess. The most world altering inventions were almost all discovered by mistakes. Experts that were looking for answers to other things. In many cases an experts opinion is guided by other parameters such as cost, or availability, or the bias against something they tried 20 years ago, not working, and won't even consider now. I think it's important to seek advice from someone with vast experience in something, but I still reserve the right to question their opinion. 

<Sigh>

I was hoping that an R-Pod forum would be a welcome respite from the poorly informed, anti-scientific opinions spewed by Fox News acolytes, but alas, I guess not. Very unfortunate. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 May 2020 at 10:12am
Greetings:
We do not live on a benign planet!  Everything  is  trying to kill us.  We are social creatures, 6.6 billion of us.  We cannot go backwards in time.  A ongoing disruption in our economy will end up killing more people than the virus.  99% of folks who get the virus will recover. For this we have given up all our Civil Liberties, for some false sense of safety.  I'm going to be 80 in a couple of weeks.  As a American Citizen and a veteran,  I want to die as a free man.
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