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Elecgric Vehicles - F250 Lightning

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Topic: Elecgric Vehicles - F250 Lightning
Posted By: Ciberpine
Subject: Elecgric Vehicles - F250 Lightning
Date Posted: 16 Mar 2022 at 12:06pm
Starting a thread on Electric Vehicles.  I noticed in the post entitled "To buy or not to buy", that Offgrid mentioned that he is on the list to get purchase an F150 Lightning EV.  I also am on that list, although didn't make the 2022 cut and will have to wait until 2023 apparently.

The question that I am sure we all have is battery distance pulling a trailer, such as an R-Pod.  Even though Ford's marketing material has lots of pictures of the F150 Lightning towing a nice Airstream, there is no information on towing distance.  The truck looks like it will tow the R-pod with ease, but as we all know, it takes energy to tow. 

Has anybody able to find some information on this?  Has anybody actually taken delivery of an Electric Truck and towed with it?


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Scott and Noreen
2017 R-Pod 190, 2011 Toyota Tundra
Pilgrims on the way to the Celestial City



Replies:
Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 16 Mar 2022 at 5:21pm
I missed this year's allocation too, it'll be 2023 for me as well. I think it's safe to assume the range towing an rpod will be around half or a little more of what it is with just the truck by itself. That's roughly equivalent to what happens to your gas mileage on an ICE truck as well. We should be seeing some real world numbers on this soon.

For me, since I've sold the rpod and no longer take long road trips, I expect I'll get the standard range version of the f150. All my towing nowadays is the horse or utility trailer and it's never more than maybe 30-50 miles.

The standard range truck looks to be a relative bargain in the base trim at about $39k and is supposed to still be capable of bi directional charging so it can run your house in emergencies.

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1994 Chinook Concourse
1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft
2015 Rpod 179 - sold


Posted By: furpod
Date Posted: 16 Mar 2022 at 7:30pm
There have been several reports on electric vehicle towing, by both "regular" owners, and people who test trucks.. So far, after reading through articles or watching videos, it seems you can expect 50 to 60% range loss, at a minimum. We had an Rpod owner in the FB group last year, tow from Houston to Miami. They were able to average just about 150 miles a day, forward motion. Finding charging spots, and more importantly, USING those charging spots was difficult. NONE are designed for a vehicle with a trailer in tow. Many times, they had to drop the trailer first.

Finding CG's along the route, and also in-line with their route of travel/chargers was difficult also. They had hoped to be able to charge at CG's some, but were either not allowed, or charged extra, and a 50A 120v charge didn't add much range overnight they said.


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Posted By: Rpod-Couple
Date Posted: 16 Mar 2022 at 8:02pm
The 120v chargers are typically type 1 and limited to 15A even when plugged into a 50A 120V socket. This limits you to 1.8 kWh per hour. So in 12 hours over night you are adding 21 kWh to a battery that has 98 kWh capacity - only 22% charge. The F150 only works if you stay in one place for 2-1/2 days. A type 2 240V 30A charger will get your F150 to 88% in a 12 hour over night stop but you would have to take the type 2 charger with you. 

If I limited my camping to a 120 mile radius or could find 50A 240V hookups every 120 miles the F150 Lightning might be ok. But you would be driving only 2 hours a day. Might as well tow my R-pod with a team of mules. LOL

No battery will ever beat the energy density of a gallon of gas at 39.5 kWh.


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Steve & Elaine
2021 R-pod
2023 VW Atlas Cross Sport


Posted By: Ciberpine
Date Posted: 17 Mar 2022 at 10:03am
Agreed that the energy density of a gallon of gas or diesel cannot be duplicated with a battery.  However, there are many appealing things about an electric vehicle.  For now, the range is limited, but the electric truck will make an excellent work truck if driving 100 miles, or so, per day.  I own a tree care company, and the thought of being able to charge the fleet overnight for the 50-100 miles they will drive the next day is very appealing, along with the portable power station that the truck is. 

I think we will see an explosion of charging stations along the highways and by-ways over the next few years.  Like it or not, the Federal Government will subsidize it.  It's going to happen.  The technology is there for reliable electric vehicles.  The concept is not new, since some of the very early cars were electric.  Now we have the technology to make it practical.

I am hopeful that the towing range will improve with subsequent models of these trucks.  The portable power station should excite all of us boondockers.


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Scott and Noreen
2017 R-Pod 190, 2011 Toyota Tundra
Pilgrims on the way to the Celestial City


Posted By: GlueGuy
Date Posted: 17 Mar 2022 at 11:55am
Based on what I've read and listened to, I am inclined to agree with furpod. You will lose at least 50% of your range towing with an EV. Part of what makes EVs so efficient is meticulous attention to aerodynamic drag. Towing a trailer pokes a stick in the eye of aerodynamics. Until travel trailer makers figure out how to make trailers more aerodynamic, the range will be (in a word) sucky.

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bp
2017 R-Pod 179 Hood River
2015 Ford F150 SuperCrew 4WD 3.5L Ecoboost


Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 17 Mar 2022 at 5:08pm
There is nothing particularly aerodynamic about an f150, electric or ICE. The electric versions are going to get around a 230 mile range and the extended range version is going to get around 300. They will do that because they have big batteries. 98kwh and 131 kwh respectively.

The range difference towing can be expected to be about what we see with an F150 Ecoboost, say 26 mpg highway vs around 14 towing, or a bit better than 50%.

I have no idea why someone would be limited to 150 miles per day in an EV. A Porsche Taycan did the 2900 mile Cannonball run last year in 42 hours, including charging time. That vehicle, the f150 and many other EVs are now designed around 800V DC fast charging so recharge at 150-250kw or more. Around 30-40 minutes to add 60-70 percent range or more.

That 39kwh per gallon energy figure for gasoline is not pertinent. That is the chemical energy stored in the
fuel and does not in any way represent the energy available at the wheels. ICEs are horribly inefficient, if the energy available at the wheels is 10kwh/gallon you're doing well. So an f150 with a 131kwh battery is the equivalent of it having around a 13 gallon gas tank. At 26 mpg that's a bit over 300 miles range so the numbers line up. No drag benefit for the f150 Lightning.   

I guess the fossil fuel company pr folks have done a good job getting the average person to fixate on range when making comparisons between ICEs and EVs. In reality for most usage range is pretty irrelevant.

Let's for a moment focus on other points of comparison. 90 plus percent of ev owners replenish their vehicle's energy at home. Unless you have a gas pump at your house an ICE can't compete with that. Far more convenient.

And far cheaper. And not tied to the global spot price of crude oil. And with solar for charging you can home grow your energy and be free of dependence on whatever international incident Big Oil is using to justify their latest price gouging.

How about torque? No ICE can compete. Ditto for 0 to 60 and quarter mile times.

How about regen braking? EV drivers rarely need to use their friction brakes, saving cost recovering the energy.

Simplicity and cost of the drivetrain. Maintenance. Noise and vibration. The list goes on. And I didn't even mention air pollution till now.

Oh and can an ICE power your house?

So if you spend most of your time travelling long distances sure, get an ICE. But if youre the average user the EV has the ICE beat hands down.

So please don't critique the one area where EVs fall short unless you are also willing to be unbiased and acknowledge the multiple areas where the EV is far superior.




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1994 Chinook Concourse
1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft
2015 Rpod 179 - sold


Posted By: Rpod-Couple
Date Posted: 17 Mar 2022 at 6:57pm
The problem was stated at the beginning - charging stations aren’t designed for big vehicles towing trailers. Until that is solved and located every 100 miles, fast charging will still be a pain in the a$$ for us.

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Steve & Elaine
2021 R-pod
2023 VW Atlas Cross Sport


Posted By: Tars Tarkas
Date Posted: 17 Mar 2022 at 7:01pm
Originally posted by offgrid


I have no idea why someone would be limited to 150 miles per day in an EV. A Porsche Taycan did the 2900 mile Cannonball run last year in 42 hours, including charging time. That vehicle, the f150 and many other EVs are now designed around 800V DC fast charging so recharge at 150-250kw or more. Around 30-40 minutes to add 60-70 percent range or more.

I don't know what the Cannonball run is and I'm sure a Porsche Taycan, whatever that is, can go really fast  And I don't know what the vehicle's range is.  Assuming 5 stops for charging, which is probably low, and 30 minutes per charge, that's 2.5 hours out of 42, so it was moving for 39.5 hours. probably less.  2900 miles in 39.5 hours means it averaged over 73 mph. Possible, but not likely.  Was this on a closed track going around in flat circles?  It wasn't towing an RPod was it?

30-40 minutes for a "fill-up" wouldn't be be my cup of tea,  That 90% of people charge their EVs at home is totally irrelevant to this towing discussion.

I like the concept of EVs, but from what I've seen here, there's only a very limited application for using them as a tow vehicle for an RPod out in the real world.  The F150 Lighting wouldn't work for a single trip I've taken with my pod in the past 10 years.

TT


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2010 176
FJ Cruiser


Posted By: StephenH
Date Posted: 17 Mar 2022 at 7:32pm
Since we only have one vehicle (my wife does not drive), and since I need to tow across the country as well as drive in and around town, the ICE engine still has the advantage for me. If the regulations would revert back to what they were before January 6th, my life would be easier. 

I think the current administration is deliberately making gasoline and diesel fuel prohibitively expensive with the goal of pushing people into remote-pollution vehicles AKA EVs that shift the pollution from the tailpipe to powerplants. If they were serious about alternate energy, then there would be many nuclear plants under construction as they are the best way to reduce CO2. Every technology has issues. Dams? I don't see any being built for hydroelectric power. Windmills? Ask Texas what happens when severe winter weather hits. Solar? Maybe for the desert southwest, but not for any area where clouds obscure or snow covers panels. Mirrors focused on a central tower? How many toasted birds are on the ground around California's installation. How many acres of farmland are now being covered with solar panels? How many more would be needed to ensure an adequate supply of energy to charge all these vehicles?

This does not even address an issue that my niece mentioned when we were visiting up in NY recently (just returned Wednesday). EVs don't like cold weather. The range of EVs is greatly reduced with cold weather. Lithium batteries can't be charged below 32F without some form of heating to make sure they are charged and not damaged. So part of the battery's energy has to go into heating elements. Then temperature has to be watched so that they don't get too hot (thermal runaway anyone?). That also takes energy to keep them cool.

One can say that only a small part of the energy contained in gasoline gets to the ground through the wheels. The same thing can be said for the energy being used at the generating plant. I looks as if proponents of EVs assume that 100% of the energy used by the generator reaches the charger, 100% of the energy that reaches the charger goes into the battery, and 100% of the energy contained in the battery goes to the ground through the wheels and not wasted. That is no more realistic than assuming 100% of the energy in a gallon of gasoline or diesel fuel is used and not wasted.

I would be willing to drive a hybrid F150, but an EV is just not going to work for us any time soon. If anyone thinks one would fit his or her lifestyle and needs, then go for it.


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StephenH
Happy is the man that findeth wisdom,...

http://www.rpod-owners.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=7712 - ouR escaPOD mods
Former RPod 179
Current Cherokee Grey Wolf 24 JS


Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 17 Mar 2022 at 7:59pm
Me thinks the conversation is turning a little too political.  I'm finding myself biting my fingers in an effort to stop them from going wild in the keyboard.  

Though I tend to agree that towing with an electric vehicle is not very practical, attributions about the price of gasoline and the motivations therefore are a little over the edge.  Ouch! there I go biting my fingers again to stop them.


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Never leave footprints behind.
Fred & Maria Kearney
Sonoma 167RB
Our Pod 172
2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost


Posted By: StephenH
Date Posted: 17 Mar 2022 at 9:36pm
It was not meant to be political but a statement of fact. I will drop the opining on oil but towing with EV's may become practical if wireless charging via roadways were able to become a reality. That is something I read about in either PS or PM years ago, but nothing ever came of it. Fuel cells were the topic also, and I think that could have been a viable alternative as refueling would have been quick. However, avoiding contamination of the catalyst is a problem if one is using air. Also, rolling Dewar flasks for carrying pure liquid hydrogen would not have been good. CNG could have been used, but the hydrogen would need to be split from the carbon. Then how does one capture the carbon for re-use in industry or proper disposal? Each technology looks promising until one starts seeing the consequences of adopting it. Some of those can't be foreseen. 

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StephenH
Happy is the man that findeth wisdom,...

http://www.rpod-owners.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=7712 - ouR escaPOD mods
Former RPod 179
Current Cherokee Grey Wolf 24 JS


Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 17 Mar 2022 at 9:42pm
I agree that the lack of charging infrastructure is a big drawback to electric vehicle's towing.  The WAPO has an article today about hydrogen.  As StephenH suggests, the deeper one looks into alternative energy the more the problems become apparent.  There is just no such thing as a free lunch.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2022/03/17/hydrogen-clean-energy-climate-change/ - https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2022/03/17/hydrogen-clean-energy-climate-change/


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Never leave footprints behind.
Fred & Maria Kearney
Sonoma 167RB
Our Pod 172
2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost


Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 18 Mar 2022 at 5:30am
I don't see how attributions that accuse the adminstation of deliberately increasing oil prices can be taken as anything but political.


That is not appropriate in this forum, but if we want to talk about facts in the energy area Im ready and able to do so.

First, on fuel energy density. A comparison was made between batteries and gasoline as vehicular energy storage. I stated that the chemical energy contained in the fuel was not pertinent to this comparison, because only about 25% of that energy makes it to the wheels. That is correct, and it is a good rough approximation to compare 10kwh of battery storage with 1 gallon of gasoline tank capacity.

None of that has anything at all to do with power plant efficiency. That only comes into play in effecting the direct and indirect/environmental costs of electricity. Which were not part of this thread till now.

But if you want to compare that with the direct and indirect/environmental costs of fossil fuel delivery we can do that.

In doing so though we cannot assume business as usual in the electricity generation energy mix because our energy extraction, production, delivery, storage, and distribution systems are multi decade long term investments.

So when you read these articles which say that all you're doing when you operate EVs using conventional fossil fuel powerplants   
is moving emissions from the tailpipe to the smokestack, realize that those are written by fossil fuel company shills who want you to believe that nothing will change in the energy mix feeding the grid.

Those guys would like that to be true but it is a lie. The reality is that the grid is changing now, and fast:

Here are some facts: there were 23 GW of solar capacity installed in the us in 2021. 13 GW of wind. 6.6 GW of gas turbines. 1.1 GW of nuclear (btw I would also like that to be more but the reality is that nukes are very costly and time consuming to install so are not considered to be cost effective by the power producers who are making those investment decisions). Coal reduced by 4.6 GW.

See what's happening? Renewables are winning, and it's because they are cheap and easy. That was what I did as a career, and I'm proud of contributing to that accomplishment.

In the meantime even on the dirtiest grids EVs produce less emissions that ICE vrhicles. China has one of the dirtiest grids in the world but even there EVs are cleaner. Why? Because power plants are more efficient than car engines, quite a lot more efficient. 25% vs 35-40%. And the delivery system (wires vs fuel pipelines and trucks) is more efficient as well.

Here's another lie: the TX outages last winter were caused by renewables. In reality the vast majority of power generation that went offline were steam gas turbines because their plumbing systems froze up. Even a nuke went offline.


Why did they freeze up and why did this cause so much havoc? Because ERCOT is entirely within the state of TX, in the drive to deregulate everything and let the "free market" operate unfettered it cut it's interstate ties so it is not subject to FERC regulations. Look up ERCOT and FERC if you don't know what those are.

The result is that ERCOT does not have the proper systems and reserve capacity in place to handle these rare but entirely predictable weather events. Nor can it just buy power from it's neighboring states like everyone else can. And of course the systems engineers know all that very well.

This go it alone approach demonstrates the need for our critical infrastructure to be regulated. So please if we're going to have this discussion let's have it based on real data not superficial biased fake news stories.

As for EVs not being appropriate for a specific use group yet, I fully agree. As I stated.

Bit let's not fixate on that one weakness and use it to trash EVs in general without also acknowledging the big advantages they have in so many areas. That is not a balanced evaluation, and for most folk's needs an EV will do a great job.

Let's also please drop the whining about gas prices. The alternative exists where you can free yourself from the thrall of Big Oil price gouging and foreign manipulations effecting your energy costs. This has been going on at least since the early 70s.

Don't you think it's suspicious when some mideast dictator hiccups, within days you're paying double at the gas pump? Follow the money, who benefits? I'll give you one guess. Might it just possibly be the same guys who spend money trashing solar and EVs? What a surprise....

We have the technology now, unlike in the 70s, and it's within the grasp of average middle class Americans to get out of this cycle. Get an EV and install solar. If you decide for whatever political, lifestyle, or other reason not to do that, then that's your choice. Just please don't whine about it. Everyone seems to like to play the victim these days about one thing or another.





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1994 Chinook Concourse
1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft
2015 Rpod 179 - sold


Posted By: Olddawgsrule
Date Posted: 18 Mar 2022 at 7:30am
I'm still debating my purchase into the EV world, but it's not due to most of your concerns. Charging to get most anywhere is pretty much in place now.

Here's a site that shows the stations in place to cross the country by corridor: https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/corridors?country=US

With over 53,000 stations in place and more being added, my concern is not recharging.

As most of you know I switched over to a truck camper I built. I wanted something much less weight and would go where I wish to go. I need more rural places to charge and I see it coming. 

Example is Baja this past Feb! We traveled 340miles between petro stations, never mind finding a charge station. There are some there, yet like some of the petro stations, not open for business... 

Safe Travels all


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https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCJduGeZNFgtptH67leItRFQ - Byways no Highways
2017 Tacoma
http://tnttt.com/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=72408 - Truck Camper Build
2004 F150 My Overlander


Posted By: StephenH
Date Posted: 18 Mar 2022 at 10:04pm
One question: How much more generating capacity will be needed to charge all of the EV's that are being pushed on the public? The grid has enough trouble supplying power for the use we have currently. There needs to be massive improvements in power generation and power transmission.

I'm in favor of using alternative means of power generation. I just don't see it replacing the need for generating capacity that will be there when there are periods of insufficient sunshine to generate power or when there are insufficient winds to run those wind turbines. Nuclear fusion is still years away from the break-even point of generating more power than is used to contain and compress the plasma sufficiently for fusion. Fast breeder reactors that produce fuel and then burn it would be nice except that it would be difficult to get something like that built.

I'm not a Luddite. I just don't see battery operated vehicles as being something that would work for me as a sole vehicle. I would not object to having one for in and around town driving, but not for the type of travel we do. We will be going to my Dad's funeral service with the RPod in April. Then in May we are planning a trip to Utah and Arizona so we can be there for our oldest grandson's high school graduation and to see our daughters and grandchildren in both states. Given that it will be about 5-6K miles over a number of days, extended charging times are not a viable option.


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StephenH
Happy is the man that findeth wisdom,...

http://www.rpod-owners.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=7712 - ouR escaPOD mods
Former RPod 179
Current Cherokee Grey Wolf 24 JS


Posted By: David and Danette
Date Posted: 19 Mar 2022 at 5:19am
    The biggest thing to me that would keep me from buying a electric vehicle, lawn mower or bicycle would be the expense of replacing a battery. Batteries are expensive for the items I thought of buying and that is why I decided against them.

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2018 Vista Cruiser 19BFD (2018-              
2012 Vibe 6503 (2014-2019)
2009 r-pod 171 (2009-2014)
Middle Tn
2014 Ram 1500 Quad cab




Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 19 Mar 2022 at 5:27am
The oversimplified answer to your first question is that if all US cars were ev's they would require an increase of around 25-30% in total electric grid energy production. That's big but certainly not impossible to accomplish.

In practice things are of course more complicated, assuming we don't want to provide that additional electricity using traditional fossil fuel powerplants. This leads to a discussion of energy storage and dispatchabity.

There is only one reason I haven't bought an EV myself yet. I am waiting for bidirectional charging capability. That is already starting to be deployed in some other countries but has not yet been released in the US. There are a couple quite frustrating reasons for that which we don't need to get into here.

With bidirectional charging things change. EVs become part of the energy storage and delivery solution rather than a problem. That is because, as you rightly point out, renewables are not dispatchable power sources. Your friendly grid operator can't call up the old sun and wind gods and tell them to get going. Solar and wind come when they come. Renewables require storage to become dispatchable. Look up "duck curve" for more detailed info on this.

That lack of dispatchability is not a problem yet in most of the US because the solar/wind fraction of total grid capacity is still very low, around 5% nationally. We can and should put in tons more wind and solar in most parts of country and can do so without causing grid management issues. But in HI, CA, and several European countries the renewable content is now reaching the limit it can achieve without storage. That's somewhere around 15 to 20% if the renewables are solar and wind. HI and CA have the highest renewable fractions of any US states currently at around one third but that's because they have lots of hydro and even geothermal, which are dispatchable.

For solar and wind, more than around 15% means the plants need to be curtailed sometimes, which hurts their economics. Some curtailment is ok, the costs are getting low enough to tolerate that, but its not an ideal situation and to really get close to zero carbon power generation with renewables you have to have cost effective storage.

With widespread EV adoption there will be huge battery storage capacity already paid for that is sitting around doing nothing for the 90% plus of the time when the vehicles are not being used. For a residence as an example
an EV in the garage has capacity that is several times the daily energy requirement of the home it is connected to. So with bidirectional charging the vehicles can easily levelize the owners electrical demand while still retaining a very reasonable reserve capacity for daily transportation. All that is required is vehicles and charge points with bidirectional capability at homes and workplaces and web based comm infrastructure to manage it.

Renewables in combination with EV energy storage can then go to a much higher penetration level as a grid resource. Will that solve all the problems and let the grid go to 100% solar and wind? Of course not, nothing is that simple.

But it will be very significant, and does not require magic new voodoo technology like fusion. All the tech for it already exists and is proven.    

Forget stuff like fusion, it will have zero impact for the forseeable future. Let the researchers do their thing in the meantime. When I started working in solar over 40 years ago, it was already a proven technology that was commonly used in space and a few terrestrial applications. it's taken till just the last few years for it to be making a significant impact on the grid. That's just how long things take to change in the energy sector. It's not like the semiconductor or some other industries which change rapidly, the scale of investment required is so much larger. For example, over 90% of total polysilicon feedstock is now used for solar vs semiconductor fabrication, back in 95 it was the other way around, solar used to exist on the scrao material left over from the semiconducor industry.

Even existing technology like fission takes a very long time to deploy. Not counting the planning phase a nuke takes at least 5 years to construct and commission, and thats in France which has by far the most well developed nuclear industry of any country. The last one build in the US took over 40 years. In comparison, solar can be constructed and installed in a matter of a few months. Wind is a little longer not not much. And nukes are probably the most expensive generation option when the entire fuel cycle is considered. No private invetor wants to put them in. So while I'm in favor of building any and all non carbon based generation facilites realistically it's unlikely for nukes to have much impact for decades. Ditto for more large scale hydro, most all viable project sites are already taken.

So back to renewables and expansion past 15 or 20% via storage. There are interesting options for utility
scale storage being tested including straightforward technologies like using cranes to stack and unstack big chunks of concrete. Some of those will work out besides just big lithium battery banks. In the meantime bidirectional EV charging and increased renewable deployment in underserved markets will take us to the next level.

The take away here is that we can't let the quest for perfection get in the way of the good enough. That's not how any idustry investment operates including the energy sector. We need to get going faster with what we have and improve as we go along.

Ford has committed to providing bidirectional charging capability in the F150 out of the box. If that happens it should make Ford the market leader. Their first offering will allow off grid dischage usage only but that in itself is significant and theyre working on grid interconnected deployment as well. I want one.

Having to operate an ICE vehicle for awhile longer because of your range requirement doesn't make you a Luddite. Not at all. Just recognize that that is a personal choice and will be outside the norm in the future, and as such you shouldnt complain about the rising costs to do what you want to do. Heck, I decided to buy an airplane because I love flying, and that thing uses a lot of expensive avgas. 10 gallons an hour. I can drive all day in my Prius on 10 gallons. I have no justification now to whine about the cost of fuel, or ICE engine maintenance. That was my choice and I have to bear the costs or get out. The day I could hope to convert my plane to electric is very far off, much farther than for any road vehicle use.




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1994 Chinook Concourse
1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft
2015 Rpod 179 - sold


Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 19 Mar 2022 at 7:30am
To keep things in perspective, I suppose we may want to think of how long it took to switch from animal and human drawn transport to combustion based forms of motive force.    

I agree with OG about the development alternative energy systems and the need to use the technology we have as urgently as we can.  On the other hand, I appreciate the reality that there must be a transition period in which we will inevitably end up using the old technology for some purposes, such as towing trailers, for a longer period than we may like, or that is objectively best for the planet.  Such is the human condition.

If I had the money today, I'd run down to Whaling City Ford and sign up on the list to buy a Ford Lightning F-150 and use it as much as possible, including local camping adventures, while keeping my Ecoboost F-150 for long trips, but, in spite of working until I was 70 to maximize my Social Security check, I simply don't have the money to do so.  I have to get by with what I have until I give up my travel trailer camping activities.  I think that dilemma is one many of us on this board face.  




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Never leave footprints behind.
Fred & Maria Kearney
Sonoma 167RB
Our Pod 172
2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost


Posted By: GlueGuy
Date Posted: 19 Mar 2022 at 10:41am
Few people probably remember that there was a massive glut of oil during the first year of the pandemic. Enormous numbers of people curtailed driving to the point that refineries were scrambling to find places to store the raw crude. They cut back production, but that process took most of a year to get it down to the point where they didn't have to scramble for storage. In fact, there were tankers floating around with nowhere to put the crude.

Fast forward to now, and we have the opposite problem. Because of the cutbacks, they are now trying to ramp up production to meet the new demand. 

The United States happens to now be  a net exporter of crude oil. Yes, we produce more oil than we consume. It is a fact that the US is producing more oil now than it did at the beginning of 2020.

It's also a fact that "most" of the oil the US produces is what is known as "light, sweet crude" (aka low sulfur). For historical reasons, most of the refineries in the US are geared toward processing the heavy sulfur crude. It's unlikely that refineries will retool soon (or ever) to deal with the differences between heavy sulfur and low sulfur.

As for EVs and the load on the grid... We have many friends with EVs, and I would say more than half of them charge their EVs at home using excess power from their solar panels. I would say most of those never, ever use a charging station. The net result is that those EVs cause essentially zero load on the grid, and the power they actually use is in essence "pre-paid".

Nothing is as simple as you might expect.


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bp
2017 R-Pod 179 Hood River
2015 Ford F150 SuperCrew 4WD 3.5L Ecoboost


Posted By: Ciberpine
Date Posted: 19 Mar 2022 at 11:52am
In response to Dan and Dinnettes post about battery replacement cost.  I own a 2008 Ford Escape hybrid.  The battery pack went kaput in 2020 - 12 year life.  The cost to replace with a rebuilt battery pack was a little over $4000.  That is really the only expense of maintaining the car for 12 years.  Not bad.  Comparable to an ICE powered car.  Even the Atkinson cycle engine is still running well and clean.  After my experience with the hybrid, I would say that battery life span and replacement cost is no more of a concern than engine overhauls, transmission replacements, etc. that are common on ICE powered cars over the span of 12 years and 200,000 miles.


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Scott and Noreen
2017 R-Pod 190, 2011 Toyota Tundra
Pilgrims on the way to the Celestial City


Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 19 Mar 2022 at 5:56pm
In one sense the additional load on the grid from folks who have both EVs and solar might be thought of as zero but since renewables deployed to charge electric cars are not available to reduce existing grid fossil fuel use it is fair to ask whether that makes sense or not.

There are three reasons it does. First is because EVs are cleaner than ICEs even when operated on dirty grids.

The second is a bit more complicated. Our most common system for reimbursing residential and commercial (retail side) solar producers for the energy they are exporting to the grid limits them to produce no more energy than they consume. This is called net metering and has it's pros and cons compared to systems other countries have adopted. One con is that folks who might otherwise have the space and resources to install a larger system can't economically do so because they wont be compensated for excess production. By adding EVs to their load they can expand their system size significantly, which is a good thing for everyone.

The third is the soon to be available bidirectional charging feature allowing EVs to act as grid storage.

My 2010 Prius still has the original battery ands its shown no noticable signs of degradation. Hybrids have tiny batteries which charge and discharge constantly, so get far more cycles than an EV does. In reality we can expect EV batteries to last the life of the vehicle, after which they have a second life in stationary applications which aren't weight limited so don't need the batteries to have really high capacity. There is already an active market for batteries salvaged from wrecked Teslas. At one point I was considering buying some for my rpod.   



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1994 Chinook Concourse
1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft
2015 Rpod 179 - sold


Posted By: StephenH
Date Posted: 19 Mar 2022 at 10:02pm
Originally posted by offgrid

There is only one reason I haven't bought an EV myself yet. I am waiting for bidirectional charging capability. That is already starting to be deployed in some other countries but has not yet been released in the US. There are a couple quite frustrating reasons for that which we don't need to get into here.
That would bring in more issues. What if the EV is being used in this manner and someone decides that the energy in the battery is needed elsewhere. I get in hoping to go on a longer drive but there is not the range available. I don't think that would make me very happy or cause me to want to participate in such a plan. Also, if the EV is being used as an energy bank, is the power company paying for the energy they remove to offset the money paid to charge it in the first place? What are the unintended consequences of such a bidirectional scheme?

With bidirectional charging things change. EVs become part of the energy storage and delivery solution rather than a problem. That is because, as you rightly point out, renewables are not dispatchable power sources. Your friendly grid operator can't call up the old sun and wind gods and tell them to get going. Solar and wind come when they come. Renewables require storage to become dispatchable. Look up "duck curve" for more detailed info on this.

That lack of dispatchability is not a problem yet in most of the US because the solar/wind fraction of total grid capacity is still very low, around 5% nationally. We can and should put in tons more wind and solar in most parts of country and can do so without causing grid management issues. But in HI, CA, and several European countries the renewable content is now reaching the limit it can achieve without storage. That's somewhere around 15 to 20% if the renewables are solar and wind. HI and CA have the highest renewable fractions of any US states currently at around one third but that's because they have lots of hydro and even geothermal, which are dispatchable.
Agreed on the dispatchability. 

Even existing technology like fission takes a very long time to deploy. Not counting the planning phase a nuke takes at least 5 years to construct and commission, and thats in France which has by far the most well developed nuclear industry of any country. The last one build in the US took over 40 years. In comparison, solar can be constructed and installed in a matter of a few months. Wind is a little longer not not much. And nukes are probably the most expensive generation option when the entire fuel cycle is considered. No private invetor wants to put them in. So while I'm in favor of building any and all non carbon based generation facilites realistically it's unlikely for nukes to have much impact for decades. Ditto for more large scale hydro, most all viable project sites are already taken.
Fission need not take so long to deploy. The hold-ups are the many, many environmental impact statements and the multiple lawsuits inevitably taking place to prevent new fission power plants from being built. I wish the process could be streamlined to allow newer designs that would be safer than the pressurized water reactor and certainly much safer than the designs used at Chernobyl. Things like faults and Tsunamis need to be taken into account, but the biggest hindrance is what to do with the spent fuel. Reactors that can take that and use it to generate power while also consuming what older technology could not would be nice. It would be interesting to see an analysis of why it takes so long to build nuclear plants. Duke Energy abandoned one a few years back. The cost had gotten prohibitive.

So back to renewables and expansion past 15 or 20% via storage. There are interesting options for utility
scale storage being tested including straightforward technologies like using cranes to stack and unstack big chunks of concrete. Some of those will work out besides just big lithium battery banks. In the meantime bidirectional EV charging and increased renewable deployment in underserved markets will take us to the next level.
I don't see where stacking and unstacking concrete serves to hold energy unless they are being used as weights in a humongous escapement device to spin a generator.

The take away here is that we can't let the quest for perfection get in the way of the good enough. That's not how any idustry investment operates including the energy sector. We need to get going faster with what we have and improve as we go along.
We also need to be realistic and see that the timeline for switching from petroleum and coal to alternative energy sources is going to take a lot longer than anticipated.

Ford has committed to providing bidirectional charging capability in the F150 out of the box. If that happens it should make Ford the market leader. Their first offering will allow off grid dischage usage only but that in itself is significant and theyre working on grid interconnected deployment as well. I want one.
Ford is not marketing it as such. The advertisements I have seen indicate that it is not being used as a storage facility for the grid, but as something the buyer can use if there were to be a blackout or while camping, or tradesmen who need a portable power source to use to power their tools.

Having to operate an ICE vehicle for awhile longer because of your range requirement doesn't make you a Luddite. Not at all. Just recognize that that is a personal choice and will be outside the norm in the future, and as such you shouldnt complain about the rising costs to do what you want to do. Heck, I decided to buy an airplane because I love flying, and that thing uses a lot of expensive avgas. 10 gallons an hour. I can drive all day in my Prius on 10 gallons. I have no justification now to whine about the cost of fuel, or ICE engine maintenance. That was my choice and I have to bear the costs or get out. The day I could hope to convert my plane to electric is very far off, much farther than for any road vehicle use.
The day I see what I would consider a viable alternative to ICE powered vehicles that meet my needs is the day I change.



-------------
StephenH
Happy is the man that findeth wisdom,...

http://www.rpod-owners.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=7712 - ouR escaPOD mods
Former RPod 179
Current Cherokee Grey Wolf 24 JS


Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 20 Mar 2022 at 5:49am
Dispatchable aggregated
energy storage is already being tested in several electricity markets. It currently uses home and commercial storage systems like Tesla's Powerwall systems, but the considerations are very similar to EVs. There are also large aggregated demand response programs in place in many areas, typically involving curtailment of air conditioning loads during preak periods. These programs have very similar considerations as well. In all cases the homeowner is compensated for making their power or demand reduction available to the grid operators and gets to establish limits on their access. In the case of home energy storage or EVs, a phone app or equivalent would be used to set these limits and you could change those limits based on your requirements, like say normally limiting grid discharge to say 50% or zero if you were leaving on a long trip.

Ford is marketing their system as off grid now with an export grid tie upgrade in future. There are several bidirectional grid tie inverters on the market now for home energy storage/solar systems, so it's not much of a step once the vehicle interface is capable. I'd guess there will be DIY grid tied systems operating within a few months of release of Fords basic package, if not available out of the gate via SunRun.

Ford's partner is SunRun, the largest solar installer in the US. Both SunRun and Tesla have business divisions dedicated to developing this. It will be a big market opportunity for them in future, so they are all over it.   

Stacked concrete storage works exactly like pumped hydro, except a motor/generator is used for the lift rather than a pump/turbine. Any heavy mass moved up and down a big height will work. We'll see which ones are economically successful.

Im pro nuke, just being realistic. The 60-80 months is construction/comissioning only and that's in France which is the most favorable country for nukes. It's planning/approvals that stretch things out to multiple decades, because nothing creates more NIMBY than nuclear power. The public is afraid of it, simple as that. Wishing that were different won't make it so. Investors know that and are unwilling to throw money at something that may never give them a return, and even if it did would take a very long time. Time is money.

In contrast solar can go in in a few months and there are few NIMBY complaints, if any.   Wind is in the middle but closer to solar.

No one understands how long it takes to make changes in our energy system than I do. It's been closing in on 50 years for me working in solar. It was a similar period to transition from water to coal and from coal to oil. But renewables are there now, so it's time to move forward.





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1994 Chinook Concourse
1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft
2015 Rpod 179 - sold


Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 20 Mar 2022 at 9:23am
This is turning into a very interesting discussion.  

A couple of points to consider:
1.  Hydro electric power is becoming increasingly problematic in the west.  They just don't have enough precipitation to keep the reservoirs full enough to reliably generate electricity throughout the year.  Lake Powell, for example, is only 35' from reaching the point where the water will be too low to run the turbines.  The pump up and release schemes for generating power during peak use are also problematic because of the lack of water due to lack of snow pack and due to evaporation from warmer summers.

2.  Nickel, an essential ingredient of lithium batteries, is increasingly in short supply.  Low grade ore is problematical in that the refining and processing releases significant amounts of CO2 and is mined in open pit mines.  In fact, the extraction of both lithium and nickel present environmental problems that we need to overcome.  

Every form of energy we can come up with has its share of challenges.  But, challenges are what we are often good at overcoming, if we make the commitment to do so and follow through with it.  Our biggest challenge is to develop alternative sources of energy on an urgent basis because we don't have a lot of time to avoid the inevitable consequences of continuing in with fossil fuel energy sources.  


-------------
Never leave footprints behind.
Fred & Maria Kearney
Sonoma 167RB
Our Pod 172
2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost


Posted By: GlueGuy
Date Posted: 20 Mar 2022 at 9:56am
Nickel and cobalt are both issues with the current generation of lithium batteries, but there are several different chemistries being tried to reduce or eliminate them.

LFP batteries (for example) use neither nickel or cobalt, at the expense of somewhat smaller storage capacity. The good news here is that there are newer versions of LFP batteries that reduce that difference. I don't think they will catch up to the more exotic chemistries, but they might get close.

There's also the advent of solid state lithium batteries. Articles I've read recently seem to indicate that they (MIT is one research facility) are getting close to a solid state battery that takes fewer steps to make and almost doubles the capacity of current "wet" lithium batteries.

It also looks like we might be able to extract lithium from sea water. That would be an interesting development.


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bp
2017 R-Pod 179 Hood River
2015 Ford F150 SuperCrew 4WD 3.5L Ecoboost


Posted By: StephenH
Date Posted: 20 Mar 2022 at 2:10pm
One thing that keeps me from diving into solar is the location and orientation of our house. The roof line is such that I would get morning sun on one side but shade there in the afternoon. The peak runs roughly along a NE to SW line. We also have a lot of trees in our area which would shade side of the roof that would get sun in the afternoon. In addition, we pure do not have the space to add battery storage unless it could be put in a crawl space.

In addition, Duke Energy is proposing cutting the rate paid for rooftop solar. Also, federal solar tax incentives are set to expire at the end of this year from what I have read, although there may be state incentives.




-------------
StephenH
Happy is the man that findeth wisdom,...

http://www.rpod-owners.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=7712 - ouR escaPOD mods
Former RPod 179
Current Cherokee Grey Wolf 24 JS


Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 21 Mar 2022 at 5:03am
You are missing they key point about batteries and EVs when you focus on those "breakthrough" announcement articles.

Batteries appear to be following Wrights law, as has photovoltaics and many many other products. That law, first postulated in the 1920s for aicraft, would tell us that the cost of batteries should decline by a fixed amount for every doubling of production. As the volume of EV and battery production is about to go through the roof, and we are getting near price parity now, the crossover point where EVs become cheaper than ICEs is highly likely to occur within the next couple of years. From there they will continue to drop as production volume increases.

ICEs have long since reached a plateau in production volume so their cost has nowhere to go but up. This is why the auto manufacturers are all switching over. If they don't they will die.

Where do these cost improvements come from? All kinds of small incremental things associated with increased economies of scale, production experience, and engineering tweaks.

Take PV for instance. If someone with a time machine had brought me back a current generation solar module to show my 1980 self I would have been very impressed but I also would have recognized it instantly. The cells in it are the same basic technology and made from the same materials, interconnected the same way, with the same kind of glass/polymer/aluminum frame encapsulation system as what we were making in 1980. Not one gee whiz "breakthrough" in there, even though there have been zillions of solar "breakthrough" announcements over the past 40 years.

But all the little improvements plus high volume automated manufacturing make the current product twice as efficient and about 100 times cheaper than it was in 1980 in inflation adjusted dollars. It's much more environmentally friendly to make as well.

My point is, don't be distracted by all the press about this or that "breakthrough" in battery technology. That's 99% fluff from startups trying to increase their valuations or researchers trying to get continued funding. Look instead for incremental improvements year by year in the stuff actually being made.

I know it's not sexy but that's how the real world of production engineering and manufacturing works. Just lots of hard work day in and day out by lots of engineers and production workers to get little bitty improvements.

Something America doesn't seem to want to do anymore. Everyone is more interested in the big breakthrough that gets you rich quick, so we ship our technology overseas and let the Chinese and others do the hard work so they wind up dominant in one key industry after another.

Currently China is at about 80% of total global production of solar, ditto for Li batteries. About 2/3 of all lcd display screens, and
the largest wind turbine producer. Can you think of any 4 more important technologies to dominate in the 21st century than those? I can't.

Sorry, end of rant.




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1994 Chinook Concourse
1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft
2015 Rpod 179 - sold


Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 21 Mar 2022 at 5:14am
StephenH, a southeast exposure is fine for solar. Check out the attached calculator.

https://pvwatts.nrel.gov/ - PVWatts

Shade is another story and can be difficult to estimate. Chainsaws work pretty well...



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1994 Chinook Concourse
1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft
2015 Rpod 179 - sold


Posted By: GlueGuy
Date Posted: 21 Mar 2022 at 10:47am
If you have partial shade, it's also good to isolate panels such that they don't fight each other when some of them are shaded.

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bp
2017 R-Pod 179 Hood River
2015 Ford F150 SuperCrew 4WD 3.5L Ecoboost


Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 21 Mar 2022 at 11:26am
You can get micro inverters which completely isolate individual modules to limit shading impacts. But if your site is heavily shaded the performance will still be bad. Find a different site or cut some trees. If you can't do that then probably solar is not for you, or at least not unless you move.

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1994 Chinook Concourse
1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft
2015 Rpod 179 - sold


Posted By: Olddawgsrule
Date Posted: 21 Mar 2022 at 4:34pm
Originally posted by GlueGuy

If you have partial shade, it's also good to isolate panels such that they don't fight each other when some of them are shaded.

I do believe this is where diodes come into play. If concerned add inline. 

As far as shade goes, capacitors come to mind.. How many, at what size and if efficient for cause to be be determined. 

I was just down in Baja and didn't see a cloud for nearly a month in the Southwest. Is solar worth it, ya down there!
Up here, it takes some doing to come even close to what they have available. 
Can we do it? Ya.. with some effort.. If so willin' 

Again, I approach this from a different propestive than draggin' a trailer.. 



-------------
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCJduGeZNFgtptH67leItRFQ - Byways no Highways
2017 Tacoma
http://tnttt.com/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=72408 - Truck Camper Build
2004 F150 My Overlander


Posted By: StephenH
Date Posted: 21 Mar 2022 at 5:26pm
Cutting down my organic towers (trees) is not gong to happen. I have had to cut too many already. Organic towers means I use some of the trees to support my amateur radio antennas. From the calculator, I figured that I could cut my power bill, but not eliminate it. I have the wrong orientation and vent stacks on the best roof surface available. We only have .28 acres, so there is no space to put a ground-mounted system either.

-------------
StephenH
Happy is the man that findeth wisdom,...

http://www.rpod-owners.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=7712 - ouR escaPOD mods
Former RPod 179
Current Cherokee Grey Wolf 24 JS


Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 21 Mar 2022 at 6:36pm
Plumbing vents are no problem to move, they can be run laterally in the attick spec to wherever you want Gas flues can be moved too, but are significantly more difficult. When I was doing residential systems we just relocated the plumbing vents as required, but designed around the gas flues.

It's ok to have a PV system that's sized smaller than your consumption. Any system up to one that meets your full bill will have roughly the same economics (dollars spent to dollars saved).

What you don't want to do is go over because the utility doesn't compensate you for excess production.

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1994 Chinook Concourse
1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft
2015 Rpod 179 - sold


Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 22 Mar 2022 at 7:16am
Originally posted by Olddawgsrule


Originally posted by GlueGuy

If you have partial shade, it's also good to isolate panels such that they don't fight each other when some of them are shaded.

I do believe this is where diodes come into play. If concerned add inline. 
As far as shade goes, capacitors come to mind.. How many, at what size and if efficient for cause to be be determined. 
I was just down in Baja and didn't see a cloud for nearly a month in the Southwest. Is solar worth it, ya down there!
Up here, it takes some doing to come even close to what they have available. 
Can we do it? Ya.. with some effort.. If so willin' 
Again, I approach this from a different propestive than draggin' a trailer.. 


Sorry olddogsrule but you have lots of misinformation here. You are mixing up grid tie and off grid system design. They are very different animals.

Bypass diodes are installed in all PV systems above 12V, which of course means all grid tie systems. This is a UL listing requirement to prevent fires within the array. Typically the bypass diodes protect every group of 18 series cells or so, allowing current to flow around each group if there is shading on one or more cells in that group. The shading might not be trees, it could be just a chunk of bird poop or a leaf obscuring all or part of a cell. So the bypass diodes are always required above 12V regardless of location. They aren't needed at 12V because there isn't enough voltage in the system to get a group of cells to go into reverse bias and turn on the diodes.

So bypass diodes are mean for safety purposes not for shade mitigation. They will do some shade mitigation but if the shading is extensive then they won't help grid tied systems much, because grid tie systems run at high voyages with many modules in series, and you will lose the whole series string once one of two bypass diodes turn on.

The micro inverters or other module level power electronics devices can do a much better job in mitigating shade, because they limit the effects to individual modules. Starting with the 2017 NEC you need to have module level arc fault detection and shutdown on roof mounted resi systems anyway so you might as well get combination devices which serve both to provide the safety as well as the shade mitigation functions.

Inline diodes are blocking diodes to keep current from flowing backwards into the array at night in low voltage battery charging systems. Nothing to do with shading. They used to be used with older charge controllers which didn't open the circuit at night, but are generally not needed with modern controllers. Don't install them. Ditto on capacitors, they will do nothing for shading.

Don't believe that you can't do grid tied solar in the NE. There is plenty of it going in all the time.
There is much less difference in annual solar output between the SW t and the NE than you might think. There is a big difference in winter worst month performance but that's not important if you're grid tied and on net metering, where you true up with your utility company annually. Most of the production comes in summer anyway. Winter performance is what matters for off grid systems that are meant to be used year round. These systems essentially waste the excess summer production from the solar array, so annual production isn't important for them.



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1994 Chinook Concourse
1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft
2015 Rpod 179 - sold


Posted By: StephenH
Date Posted: 22 Mar 2022 at 7:27am
Dominion and Duke Energy offer net metering, but my power is supplied by the Town of Wake Forest, so I don't know if that is available. Likewise, I don't qualify for Duke Energy solar panel rebates. The only one I can see that would be usable is the 80% property tax exemption for the appraised value of the solar system on the state side. The federal solar tax credit expires at the end of this year from what I read. I'm not ready financially to make an investment in solar as I just finished a project for siding, windows, doors, etc. that was a significant monetary outlay. I think I would like the roof to be in better shape before considering panels as getting to the roof to re-shingle would be difficult, and likely very expensive once panels were in place.

-------------
StephenH
Happy is the man that findeth wisdom,...

http://www.rpod-owners.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=7712 - ouR escaPOD mods
Former RPod 179
Current Cherokee Grey Wolf 24 JS


Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 22 Mar 2022 at 5:47pm
For sure if you're considering a new roof in the next couple of years you want to do that either first or as part of the solar project.

Even if you're not going to install solar right away consider getting the stanchions for the solar racking installed as part of the roof project. It's much easier as well as more leak proof if you get the stanchions flashed in as the shingles are going on. Any decent solar installer can attach those to your rafters after the old shingles are stripped off, then the roofer can come along behind and install the new shingles. Or you could DIY the stanchions once you have your solar layout done.

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1994 Chinook Concourse
1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft
2015 Rpod 179 - sold


Posted By: Olddawgsrule
Date Posted: 23 Mar 2022 at 8:09am
Offgrid you stated: Sorry olddogsrule but you have lots of misinformation here.

Yet in your response you stated: They will do some shade mitigation.

Come on now... 






-------------
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCJduGeZNFgtptH67leItRFQ - Byways no Highways
2017 Tacoma
http://tnttt.com/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=72408 - Truck Camper Build
2004 F150 My Overlander


Posted By: StephenH
Date Posted: 23 Mar 2022 at 9:40am
https://solarmagazine.com/solar-roofs/solar-shingles/ - https://solarmagazine.com/solar-roofs/solar-shingles/

What do you think of solar shingles or tiles?


-------------
StephenH
Happy is the man that findeth wisdom,...

http://www.rpod-owners.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=7712 - ouR escaPOD mods
Former RPod 179
Current Cherokee Grey Wolf 24 JS


Posted By: StephenH
Date Posted: 23 Mar 2022 at 10:13am
Regarding the original topic before it drifted, this is why I am not going to get an electric vehicle any time soon. The infrastructure for charging just is not yet there.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1505679545965314054 - https://twitter.com/i/status/1505679545965314054


-------------
StephenH
Happy is the man that findeth wisdom,...

http://www.rpod-owners.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=7712 - ouR escaPOD mods
Former RPod 179
Current Cherokee Grey Wolf 24 JS


Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 23 Mar 2022 at 5:48pm
Olddawgsrule I never said everything in your post was wrong. The point on diodes in solar modules is that the type that help somewhat with shading are bypass diodes and they come already installed the higher voltage modules used in grid tied solar systems because they are there for safety reasons. So you don't have to add them. They are not inline series blocking diodes they are in parallel with the cells. Blocking diodes won't help with shading.

StephenH, no one to my knowledge has yet come to market with a competitively priced roof integated solar product. Many have tried, myself included. The Tesla system has the reputation of being very high cost for one. One major reason is that the individual roof integrated solar modules are pretty small so their manufacturing costs are naturally higher on a per watt basis. The target customers so far for these types of products have been wealthy people who want to make an architectural statement, not ordinary folks on a budget.

That being said if you are seriously considering reroofing and installing solar at the same time you could get quotes from installers recommended by the manufacturers listed in that article. I think they have a pretty comprehensive list there. Just be prepared for some sticker shock.

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1994 Chinook Concourse
1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft
2015 Rpod 179 - sold


Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 27 Mar 2022 at 6:45am
Just ran across a CNBC piece discussing electric vehicle development that was very interesting.  In addition to pointing out the fact that China is way ahead of other countries in pushing electrification of vehicles, the video pointed highlighted a potentially viable solution to the range and charge time issue. http:// www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5GGCVIEYts -  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5GGCVIEYts

There is a company that started in the SF Bay Area that offers a battery exchange system for electric vehicles.  When you purchase an electric vehicle, you can buy it with the manufacturer's battery or you can get the exchangeable battery.  Their batteries are modular and can be removed separately charged on an automated system, then put back into the battery pack for automated installation in the vehicle.  The battery change process appears to take about the same time as filling the gasoline tank of an ICE powered vehicle.  This would reduce the problem with the range issue to the extent that the battery exchange time would be fast enough that one could quickly get back onto the road with little delay.  

A second advantage to the exchangeable battery pack was also noted.  The batteries are charged on a trickle charge basis and the charging power electricity consumption can be moderated to charge when the grid has surplus power from renewable sources, instead of using on demand power that often is generated with high CO2 emitting power sources.  According to the promoters of this system, the trickle charge system extends the battery life, and does not degrade the battery as does a rapid high voltage charging system.  

A third, and very important, advantage is that these battery while in storage while waiting to be put into vehicle battery packs, can be used to store surplus electricity generated by renewable sources such as solar and wind.  One of the biggest Achilles heels to renewable energy is the fact that it doesn't necessarily produce energy at the moment it is needed.  A nation/worldwide system of exchangeable batteries would go a long way to providing an electric power storage system to provide for the on demand power needs.

We are a long way from building the infrastructure for such a system, but it could solve many problems with the electrification of vehicles, CO2 emissions, renewable energy storage, and would create a phenomenal demand for skilled labor.  If we don't get moving on this quickly, we can be sure that China will.


-------------
Never leave footprints behind.
Fred & Maria Kearney
Sonoma 167RB
Our Pod 172
2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost


Posted By: David and Danette
Date Posted: 27 Mar 2022 at 1:49pm
   That sounds like a step forward and if they could use standard size batteries that are interchangeable with different vehicles. One could go to a Walmart auto center and change batteries while they are shopping. Like exchanging a empty propane tank for a full one.

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2018 Vista Cruiser 19BFD (2018-              
2012 Vibe 6503 (2014-2019)
2009 r-pod 171 (2009-2014)
Middle Tn
2014 Ram 1500 Quad cab




Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 27 Mar 2022 at 2:20pm
That was exactly the idea the battery exchange folks were trying to accomplish, to have interchangeable batteries for all brands of electric cars, just like almost all gasoline works in all internal combustion engines.

-------------
Never leave footprints behind.
Fred & Maria Kearney
Sonoma 167RB
Our Pod 172
2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost


Posted By: StephenH
Date Posted: 27 Mar 2022 at 3:18pm
That is not a new idea. I read about such an idea years ago. The problem is in battery size and compatibility. Manufacturers would need to standardize on size, shape, and capacity of battery packs for this to work. Look at your average Walmart's battery assortment. Car manufacturers can't even standardize starting batteries. While it is a good thought, I don't see it happening unless it is mandated. I would object to that because it would then stifle innovation which certainly is needed.

-------------
StephenH
Happy is the man that findeth wisdom,...

http://www.rpod-owners.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=7712 - ouR escaPOD mods
Former RPod 179
Current Cherokee Grey Wolf 24 JS


Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 27 Mar 2022 at 3:43pm
The battery packs are relatively uniform.  The modular batteries inside the battery packs can be made to a uniform ASME standard, just like nuts and bolts, or saw blades.  Either we can choose to do it or we'll all be buying Chinese electric cars.  I'd prefer that we have a viable electric car manufacturing business here in North America.  It's inevitable that some kind of non-ICE car is going to take over the market, likely electric, so perhaps the best approach, instead of saying no it's too hard or too complicated, is to look for ways to make it work.

I agree the idea of exchangeable battery packs has been around for quite a while, but now there is a system actually in use that works well.  [StephenH, sounds like you didn't watch the video.  It might be worth a gander.]  There is absolutely no reason why basic battery shape and voltage standards cannot be set.  Again, if we don't do it, we can count on the Chinese doing it for us.


-------------
Never leave footprints behind.
Fred & Maria Kearney
Sonoma 167RB
Our Pod 172
2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost


Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 27 Mar 2022 at 5:43pm
Sorry LA but I'm with StephenH on this one. While the idea has merits, i doubt very much it's gonna happen, at least not here. Read this:

https://spectrum.ieee.org/ev-battery-swapping-how-is-this-a-good-idea - Battery swapping

With 800V battery systems that can charge in 20 minutes it's just not worth the trouble of having a big automated machine extract and replace a 1000 lb or so battery in your car. And remember that this is quite rare, the vast majority of people with EVs almost always charge at home, so you are constraining battery/vehicle design and technology innovation for what is a small part of the EV market.

Most EV makers now tightly integrate the batteries into the vehicle floor structure, they aren't designed to be readily accessible. This provides some very good benefits, structural rigidity, better space utilization, safety.

Another reason the US market will resist doing it: we highly value independent property ownership and don't like being forced to share things we own. For example it would be very cost effective for us to share use of things like garden tractors and power tools but we don't do it.

Re China, most of us are likely to buy Chinese EVs soon one way or another, just as we already buy Chinese TV screens, solar modules, wind turbines, and, for that matter Li batteries, along with a myriad of other products. China selected and already dominates all those strategic industries and, with the largest car market in the world and a centralized authoritarian government with the power to dictate both standards and top level industrial decision making, will almost certainly end up dominating the electric vehicle market as well. More EVs were sold in China in just December than in thee US in all of 2021.

They're smart too, skipping over even trying to compete in the ICE market, where they would have to play too much technological catch up.

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1994 Chinook Concourse
1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft
2015 Rpod 179 - sold


Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 27 Mar 2022 at 6:49pm
OG, did you watch the CNBC report?  They presented a pretty interesting solution to the battery swap issue and claim it can be done in less than 5 minutes, all automated.  The video also claimed that in purchasing an EV that one can select a factory battery or the exchangeable one.  Are you saying that they were untruthful?  

The technology can exist for battery swaps, just like many do with propane tanks, if we set our minds to make it work.  As with all technological innovations, you can be negative and come up with a million reasons why it won't work, but clever creative people look for ways to make it work.  For my self, I'd like to see a viable EV industry here in North America.  

As for sharing tools, apparently you don't live in a community where there are tool lending libraries.  They thrive and are built on community sharing, just like public book libraries.  They are located all over the country, indeed, in many places in the world.  

Before you attack ideas, at least take a look at the CNBC report, which it appears that you did not do.


-------------
Never leave footprints behind.
Fred & Maria Kearney
Sonoma 167RB
Our Pod 172
2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost


Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 27 Mar 2022 at 7:54pm
Give me a break LA. Of course I looked at the article you shared. I'm well aware of what Nio and a couple of others are trying to do in China.

Did you look at the article I sent? It acknowledges the 5 minute swap, but points out that a 20 minute recharge is close enough that it's not worth doing it. (Nio claims to be able to do it in 3 minutes actually).

Perhaps the issue here is that some folks are so focussed on replicating the gas station paradigm that they don't realize that that is not how people in the US reenergize their EVs

Certainly battery swapping can be done, but that doesn't mean it's the best way. There would inevitably be vehicle design compromises involved, like in all engineering.

I did not attack anything, I just said it was unlikely to happen here
We'll see if it happens in China. It will be done there first or nowhere, so I don't get how doing that here makes us less dependant on the Chinese. We don't even have a charging standard yet.


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1994 Chinook Concourse
1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft
2015 Rpod 179 - sold


Posted By: StephenH
Date Posted: 27 Mar 2022 at 7:55pm
The original link to the swapping video was not able to be loaded, so I found another one. It is interesting that the vehicles pictured were small passenger cars. Nothing in that video convinces me that I would be able to get into such a facility for a battery swap with a vehicle large enough to tow with and hitched up to a trailer for a battery swap. Nice idea, but no go for me. For those in an urban area, this idea might work, but I don't see a network of these sufficient for a long trip in place for many, many years. How many of these swapping stations would need to be built? Where would they be located?

Meanwhile, perhaps a solid-state battery will be viable, but not any time soon according to this Forbes article:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2021/11/28/solid-state-batteries-promise-electric-car-popularity-boost-but-technical-mountains-await/?sh=6f2d0d9b632f - https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2021/11/28/solid-state-batteries-promise-electric-car-popularity-boost-but-technical-mountains-await/?sh=6f2d0d9b632f


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StephenH
Happy is the man that findeth wisdom,...

http://www.rpod-owners.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=7712 - ouR escaPOD mods
Former RPod 179
Current Cherokee Grey Wolf 24 JS


Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 27 Mar 2022 at 8:36pm
I think there was a change in the video I originally watched on the CNBC site.  It looks like they took the battery swapping segment out.  I found the video and hope this link works.  Whether such a swapping scheme would work is far from certain, but given the stakes we face with CO2 emissions, it is worth keeping an open mind.  Here's the link:   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zl5UJQzP7NE - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zl5UJQzP7NE   If it doesn't work, the search I did was CNBC EV battery swapping.  

One of the nice things about swaps, if they became common place, is that they'd vastly improve range for towing with an EV.  Of course, that depends upon whether there is an adequate infrastructure.




-------------
Never leave footprints behind.
Fred & Maria Kearney
Sonoma 167RB
Our Pod 172
2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost


Posted By: StephenH
Date Posted: 27 Mar 2022 at 9:10pm
One thing needed for such a scheme to work is a fleet of vehicles with standardized location of battery packs and standardized connections. Every vehicle pictured in the video was a sub-compact, totally unsuited for towing. Reality is that the devil is always in the details. We drive vehicles of different size and shapes. Such a swap facility as pictured would not work when spacing and placement for wheels to lift the vehicle. I don't know why they don't build it with a pit like the old oil change facilities where vehicles would not need to be lifted. Even then, unless vehicle manufacturers agreed on locations or the facility were built with the flexibility to reconfigure for the vehicle, then it is a nice idea, but not ready for prime time.

-------------
StephenH
Happy is the man that findeth wisdom,...

http://www.rpod-owners.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=7712 - ouR escaPOD mods
Former RPod 179
Current Cherokee Grey Wolf 24 JS


Posted By: David and Danette
Date Posted: 28 Mar 2022 at 5:02am
   When watching the video the biggest thing to overcome would be exchanging a almost new battery and receiving a old battery who would want to do that. If you bought a electric vehicle but not the battery and the battery instead was owned by the manufacturer. Then the manufacturer would have a along time agreement to always provide a good working battery for the vehicle owner. But I am sure there are a lot of very intelligent engineers that will find a way if it is to work at all. 

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2018 Vista Cruiser 19BFD (2018-              
2012 Vibe 6503 (2014-2019)
2009 r-pod 171 (2009-2014)
Middle Tn
2014 Ram 1500 Quad cab




Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 28 Mar 2022 at 6:10am
For myself, I don't have a dog in this race.  By the time any TV's with adequate towing range, charging stations, and swappable batteries sufficiently penetrate into the infrastructure and vehicle market, I will have long sold my TV and trailer.  Same for my car.  It's going to last me until I'm too senile to drive, which may not be all that far in the future.  On my retirement income, there will simply be no more vehicle purchases, EV, ICE, or horse and wagon..  

But for those who have to live with the reality of climate change, thinking outside the box, looking for the positive in possible solutions, not reflexively shooting down every idea that comes along, and supporting innovation in motive power options is what will help us find a solution to replace the ICE.  Many ideas will be proposed and will have to be tested.  Some will, at first glance, seem really great but will prove impractical over the long run.  Others may seem impractical at first, but will have the seeds of a long term solution that will bloom as we develop the technology.  

As with all new ideas, people tend to eschew change and find reasons why things won't work.  I saw this in the elevator industry.  Many of the old elevator engineers despised the demise of mechanical relay logic controlled elevators and pissed and moaned about the new electronically controlled systems, claiming they'd be unreliable and unsafe.  The reality was that they were outside their comfort zone and didn't want to admit that the technology had developed beyond their knowledge base.  This tendency exists in all forms of technology, whether elevators, computer systems, energy development, or transportation.  

If we are to progress beyond petroleum based energy, we need to embrace change and innovation of all sorts and forms, and get out of our comfort zones, where we are familiar with the existing technology but it may not be the best solution.  As for whether battery swapping will work, no one really knows because the technology is in its infancy.  The key to finding solutions is to embrace possibilities and explore them thoroughly, not to reflexively say no.  


-------------
Never leave footprints behind.
Fred & Maria Kearney
Sonoma 167RB
Our Pod 172
2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost


Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 28 Mar 2022 at 6:58am
Ok, the Ample video link makes more sense in the conversation. From the previous one I thought you were referring to the well known Nio program which is swapping batteries at much higher levels in China.

Ample quite obviously offered CNBC access to get this video in the media going on a year ago bc it was shopping for higher valuations and more funding. It accomplished that, a few months ago it secured series C funding and is probably close or at unicorn status now.

This is what these Si Valley startups do, you have to take this stuff with a grain (or 10) of salt.
I for one would not invest in these guys (if I had money which I don't). Their business model makes no sense to me in the US and there are competitors in China who are far far ahead of them. Nio recently launched in Norway where EV sales are already 2/3 of total auto sales, and have plans to offer battery swapping there. Well see what happens.

Don't you think that Ample would make much fanfare if they actually had a major automaker signed up as a partner? I couldn't find one. That is absolutely essential to their business model. You will not have a auto warranty if you have Ample modify your EVs systems without the OEMs blessing.

As all these reports indicate this solution is best targeted at fleet operators and urban apartment dwellers with small vehicles and no place to plug in. That is the vast majority of the middle class in developing countries like China and India. But not here, and not for the kind of thing you're looking for LA, which is long distance rural towing.

Batteries get cheaper, lighter, and faster to charge all the time. The more they advance the less need for a new technology to solve what are quickly becoming old problems.










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1994 Chinook Concourse
1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft
2015 Rpod 179 - sold


Posted By: StephenH
Date Posted: 28 Mar 2022 at 7:00am
One thing that makes it difficult is the sheer size of the US. I see this as a very viable technology for cities where the population density is high and the distances needing to be driven are less. I don't see it working out west where there are many, many miles of no civilization between cities of a sufficient size to have such a swap facility. Reality is that Lithium Ion batteries will likely be obsolete before sufficient swap stations could be built to swap them. I keep hoping that some of the technology currently being experimented with will turn out to have the power density and speed of recharge that will allow for the range and power needed for travel. Likewise though, I am likely to be long gone and my grandchildren will still be looking for technology that is better for this purpose.

I had high hopes for fuel cells. however, transporting hydrogen of a sufficient purity to be used and not contaminate the catalysts needed to work still seems to be an issue. Pumping cryogenic hydrogen is going to require even more technology than battery swapping, not to mention what happens if there is a crash. Hydrogen burns almost invisibly when pure.


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StephenH
Happy is the man that findeth wisdom,...

http://www.rpod-owners.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=7712 - ouR escaPOD mods
Former RPod 179
Current Cherokee Grey Wolf 24 JS


Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 28 Mar 2022 at 8:11am
Fast changing technology is certainly a valid concern when trying to develop a standardized system of devices.  Computers are a perfect example.  Every computer one buys is out dated before it leaves the store.  The catch is to try to develop designs that facilitate evolution in technology.  If we get on the merry-go-round of reinventing the wheel each time we explore new ideas, we'll never agree on a system that we can really utilize.  We had the same issue with electrification of the world; to go with AC or DC, to use 60 cycles, 50 cycles, 120 or 240 volts and so on.  And this issue was incredibly simple in comparison with the replacement of the ICE.

Who knows whether Ample's system will succeed or whether someone will find better solutions?  But they are presenting a possible solution that may work.  Regarding their lack of penetration into large automotive manufactures, I didn't know that Nissan/Renault was an insignificant player in the automotive industry.  I was in Colombia last week and was surprised that this insignificant manufacturing company had about a quarter of the automotive market in vehicles on the road in metropolitan Medellin area.  

OG, apparently you didn't understand my saying that I'm not in the EV market.  I'm not looking for long range towing with an EV.  It simply isn't going to happen in my lifetime.  My point in posting the information about battery exchange is that it is simply a technology that may have some promise if it is explored and developed.  Your reply reminds me of the old elevator engineers I mentioned.

Yes, the USA is a big country that presents challenges for EV's.  We have just under 3.8M square miles in our borders.  China is close with a tad over 3.7M.  Both countries have similar distances to cover with major population centers densely packed and huge expanses of open sparsely populated areas.  Building charging options for the outlying areas in both countries will be a tremendous challenge for each.  I don't want to sound nationalistic, but I think we in the US are pretty clever folks and have the creativity to solve this problem.  Maybe I'm just a dreamer, but I want a better world for my grandkids too.


-------------
Never leave footprints behind.
Fred & Maria Kearney
Sonoma 167RB
Our Pod 172
2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost


Posted By: StephenH
Date Posted: 28 Mar 2022 at 8:53am
I just don't want us to jump into something that in the end, is no better solution than what it is trying to replace. I also don'/t want us to abandon what works for what might work someday while looking to find ways to make that transition. Auto companies that are saying that they will not make any ICE vehicles after X date might be okay for a country such as Germany which is smaller than Montana but with a population greater than California. However, Germany will need to re-think abandoning nuclear power if it expects to charge all those batteries. There are just not enough alternative sources in Germany to bituminous coal or lignite. AFAIK, Germany has little natural gas or petroleum resources, so most energy has to be imported.

Meanwhile, the increasing cost of raw materials and the increasing cost of the energy needed to process and, more importantly, to move them to where needed is making such conversion to alternative energy even more out of reach for the average person. We have not yet seen the full impact of rising diesel fuel prices, but it is hitting now. Prices of just about everything we need to buy are about to go through the roof.


-------------
StephenH
Happy is the man that findeth wisdom,...

http://www.rpod-owners.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=7712 - ouR escaPOD mods
Former RPod 179
Current Cherokee Grey Wolf 24 JS


Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 28 Mar 2022 at 9:32am
We have been using the world's resources for thousands of years with little concern for future generations. What we are seeing now is entirely predictable and expected.  As I have said many times before:  There is no such thing as a free lunch.  

Honestly, we will never solve the problem of consumption of resources.  There will never be "enough" because it is human nature to always want more in a world of finite limits.  All we can do is muddle through as best we can and try to minimize the complications by keeping an open mind to ideas that may help mitigate the consequences of our materialism.  But I wax too philosophical in that.


-------------
Never leave footprints behind.
Fred & Maria Kearney
Sonoma 167RB
Our Pod 172
2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost


Posted By: StephenH
Date Posted: 28 Mar 2022 at 11:10am
I'm all in favor of increasing efficiency of our energy use. What we can't do unless we are willing to adopt an Amish lifestyle, is to drastically reduce our energy use. It still takes energy to heat and cool our homes and power our appliances, cook our food, clean our laundry, and many, many other things. Even the Amish use energy. While they do not use grid electricity, some are adopting solar, which is good. Mechanical (read ICE) power is used to power the lathes, saws, and other tools the Amish use to manufacture the various products we can find. They may not own cars, but they will ride in them, using energy to commute to work if it is out of horse and buggy distance from their homes.

We all could learn some lessons about simplifying our lifestyles, but I do not want to give up air conditioning in the summer or heat in the winter. I am too old to go out and chop and split wood. I did that while I was young and have no urge to do so again.


-------------
StephenH
Happy is the man that findeth wisdom,...

http://www.rpod-owners.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=7712 - ouR escaPOD mods
Former RPod 179
Current Cherokee Grey Wolf 24 JS


Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 28 Mar 2022 at 11:30am
We agree StephenH.  I have no interest in living in a little cabin without a dishwasher, AC, heat, etc.   On the other hand, I have no desire to use gigawatts of power "mining" bitcoin either.  It's a question of moderation, respect for the gift of our world, and a willingness to be open and creative in managing the problems we humans have made for ourselves.  I feel optimistic that we can, to a reasonable extent, have our cake and eat it too.

-------------
Never leave footprints behind.
Fred & Maria Kearney
Sonoma 167RB
Our Pod 172
2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost


Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 29 Mar 2022 at 6:52am
OK LA, if I remind you of the old elevator engineers then you remind me of the gulls who invested in Theranos.


More than likely I adopt new tech faster than you do. I don't have time or money to be in the innovator category of tech adoption, trialling the bleeding edge beta stuff, but I typically am next in line for things that make sense to me making me a so-called early adopter. For example, I set just set up my Starlink system last weekend. I've been wait listed for close to a year now, and finally got my gen 2 system, with the covered rectangular antenna that cats can't sleep in, blocking the signal. The first gen would have been a problem for me in the winter, I have three barn cats who would have loved its nice warm snow melt feature.

Ever heard of "fake it till you make it"? I can't find one single auto manufacturers who has partnered with Ample. Can you? They modified those Nissan Leafs, and they don't say how many there are. The Leaf uses laminate type cells which are fabricated into blocks and are air cooled only, no liquid cooling like everyone else uses. So they're prone to running hotter and having shortened battery life. But relatively easy to modify. The statements that that woman at Ample made in the video that everyone uses similar batteries is flat out a lie.

If you want to see a real world battery swap system look up what Nio is doing in China. That is interesting and appears to work in that market to some extent, which is an urban use market. the Chinese do not have a century of history of travelling around their huge country in autos or big trucks towing trailers, nor do they have a century of investment in sprawling suburbia. The newly minted middle class Chinese live in urban high rise apartments and use their spanking new cars in their urban locales. the battery swap business model has benefits in this kind of environment.

The issue here is not that I am rejecting new technology it's that you are not seeing where the technology is headed. Every month batteries get cheaper, lighter, and faster to charge. Each of these steps whittles away at the battery swap business opportunity. Why would anyone want to swap batteries in 10 minutes if they can recharge them in 20 the few times they need to charge on the road? No one is going to even consider it unless they don't have a way to way to charge at home. I think it's likely that battery swapping is a technology whose window of opportunity in the mainstream US EV market has come and gone

Re hydrogen, that was a non starter.
There are many things that just don't pass the smell test from a physics and engineering standpoint. One is hydrogen fueled vehicles. It is horribly inefficient compared to batteries and there isn't going to be some magic tech that changes that because that would violate physical laws. Hydrogen is promoted by the fossil fuel as "clean" but it's anything but. The vast majority is produced from methane with CO2 as a byproduct. One of those cases of the "cure" being worse than the disease.

Re Gemany, they plan on shutting down their last nukes this year. Let's see if they actually do it. Their grid is running on around 40-ish percent renewables, of which only a small fraction is hydro and biomass, the vast majority being solar and wind.


https://www.cleanenergywire.org/sites/default/files/styles/gallery_image/public/paragraphs/images/fig3-share-energy-sources-gross-german-power-production-2021.png?itok=IIrDbGVd - Gemant electricity

Can they get to zero fossil fuel content? Certainly they can deploy enough renewables and very cheaply too. The issue is of course storage. Grid scale storage solutions other than batteries require storage of gravitational potential energy, which in turn requires heavy mass at a height. There aren't a lot of places to put more large scale pumped storage, so things like cranes and concrete and or heavily loaded trains on long grades would required. I think V2G EV technology will be a leading player as well. We'll see if they can do it. They can if anyone can, just as they were the world leaders pushing solar forward0 all through the '00"s.

Very few folks are going to voluntarily give up theyr high energy consumption lifestyles. The problem is that more and more people around the world are achieving a level of consumption that we have had for many generations. It's unfair of us to think that they will give up that opportunity just to let us continue to enjoy our way of life.

That's what the folks who complain about the carbon reduction agreements that allow the Chinese and indians to surpass our emissions don't seem to get. Those countries have 3 or 4x our population so can be higher CO2 emitters while their per capita emissions remain far below ours. It's like the population of tiny Luxembourg (579,000 people/10 megatons total annual CO2/17.5tons per capita) complaining about the US (323,000,000 people/5 trillion tons/15.5 tons per person) being a horrible polluter. We'd tell them to go look in a mirror, right?

In the end we need to expect that everyone want to have a higher standard of living so per capita emissions will be similar throughout the world. So, we need to get over our entitled attitudes and solve this global problem together. Either the high per capita emitting countries cut back and the low per capita emitters stay low, we reduce the global population, or we all brush up on our swimming skills.

Yep and quite wasting energy doing incredibly stupid stuff like "mining" cryptocurrencies. I'd hate to think what our great grandchildren will make of us for that nonsense.


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1994 Chinook Concourse
1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft
2015 Rpod 179 - sold


Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 29 Mar 2022 at 8:18am
OG, I am not in competition with you. 

I posted the article because it was an interesting development in the evolution of EV's.  I am not, and have never, advocated that battery swapping is the only viable solution to the long range travel problem with battery powered vehicles.  It was nothing more than something interesting worth sharing.  I make no pretense at knowing all there is to know about alternative energy systems.  I leave it to people far more knowledgable than you, OG, to inform me about what new systems may be on the horizon.  

Anyone can shoot down ideas that others propose, especially when one's ego is involved.  The reality is that the technology is developing much faster and more broadly than even the self described "experts" are aware of.  It is entirely possible that some very talented engineers and scientists, who are actually doing real time research into non-fossil fuel energy development, will find solutions that no one ever thought of before, despite being told they're wasting time by people who retired many years ago.  

Some, myself included, like to look at new ideas as being like a glass half full, while others like to point out it is half empty.






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Never leave footprints behind.
Fred & Maria Kearney
Sonoma 167RB
Our Pod 172
2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost


Posted By: GlueGuy
Date Posted: 29 Mar 2022 at 10:43am
I'm of the firm belief that no single thing will solve the energy issue. It will take all of the "solutions" we know of today, plus probably ones that none of us can think of. Solar and wind have the intermittency issue. Nuclear has safety and political issues (with the possible exception of fusion; but that is perpetually 10 years in the future). Geothermal has probably not been explored enough, plus it turns out there is a tremendous amount of lithium in at least "some" geothermal sites. I heard an operator of one geothermal site saying they can extract 20 thousand tons of lithium annually from just that one geothermal site. Fossil fuels have all the pollution issues we are all familiar with. Don't get me started on coal.

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bp
2017 R-Pod 179 Hood River
2015 Ford F150 SuperCrew 4WD 3.5L Ecoboost


Posted By: Ciberpine
Date Posted: 29 Mar 2022 at 1:14pm
Thumbs Up  Thank you LO and OG for a very good discussion.  I have learned much and appreciate your willingness to share your knowledge and thoughts, as for everyone else on this thread.
One underlying assumption in the discussion is that CO2 is BAD.  I am an Arborist by trade, so know a little about what makes trees tik.  They love CO2 and more is better.  The same for most all plants.
I don't think we have the capacity to understand the complexities of the earths atmosphere and geography.  Modeling is at best guessing and can be, at worst, dishonest.
I love the idea of EV's for many reasons, chief is the idea of moving the pollution source out of the urban areas and making our air healthier.  I have driven a hybrid for the past 6 years, and I look forward to an EV truck that makes economic and functional sense.  At that point, I most likely will be a buyer. 
Thank you again, for the good discussion and I learned a lot.


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Scott and Noreen
2017 R-Pod 190, 2011 Toyota Tundra
Pilgrims on the way to the Celestial City


Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 30 Mar 2022 at 6:46am
Ciberpine, the atmospheric physics of carbon dioxide heat trapping have been well understood for long over a century, no modelling required. That has nothing to do with whether plants like CO2 or not. Of course they do, photosynthesis can't work without it.

The point is that if you increase the amount of heat being trapped in the atmosphere the Earth's average temperature goes up until a new equilibrium is reached where the heat getting radiated back into space again balances with the heat being absorbed from the sun. Has to, the heat has to go somewhere, energy is not created or destroyed, just moved around.

So more CO2 means higher temps which means the glaciers melt more which means sea levels go up. That is happening now (measured, not modeled) and has happened in the past. Last time CO2 levels were this high was about 3 million years ago and sea levels were about 30-50 feet higher than now. That is called the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period.

Since about 10 percent of the world's population lives on low lying sea coasts all those folks will need to find somewhere else to live, make a living and get their food. I did exactly that 4 years ago, moved from Hatteras NC which is flooding more and more often, to SW VA at 2700 ft elevation. But we were lucky enough to have the resources to be able to do that proactively. Most people around the world do not.

Sea level rise is just one effect, others are stronger storms (because a warmer atmosphere contains more energy in the form of water vapor) and droughts in some areas and floods in others, as the climate shifts around.

None of the above takes elaborate modeling to understand. All you have to do is look at the actual temps, actual sea level changes, actual CO2 level changes, weather pattern changes, and the geological record. Where the modelling comes in is in trying to predict how soon, how much change, and which areas are going to be effected by what change.

That modeling is certainly imperfect but gets better all the time. And real scientists can't get away with lying because the whole point of science is to be able to demonstrate repeatability. If others can't replicate one scientists results then it ain't science and gets thrown out. So yes there are cases of scientists faking their data but that is a career ending event when discovered so it's quite rare.

But the big picture effect is not in doubt because you can measure it and it's happened before. Will it end the human race? Of course not, unless we do it to ourselves by fighting wars over resources or transmitting new diseases during the migrations.

Will it result in loss of biodiversity as many species die off? Of course. Plants and animals are adapted to live where they live. When things change they either have to be able to change too or move, same as the people. Some species will be able to do that but many others won't.

Will it change the world for some folks it in some really devastating ways? Yes absolutely. Will some folks be better off? Probably.

So what we need to do is decide to what extent we want to slow down and manage the changes. That's a political process which is out of bounds on this forum so I'll stop there. But the rest of the above is straightforward to understand without recourse to complex modeling.

In any event I'm happy even if climate change deniers (not saying you are one) adopt EVs and/or solar for other reasons. There are plenty of things to like about them and the result is the same regardless of the reasons. So it's all good



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1994 Chinook Concourse
1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft
2015 Rpod 179 - sold


Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 30 Mar 2022 at 7:18am
Yes LA, someone's ego does seem to have come into play here. Its a forum, we don't have to all agree with your posts. Or anyone's.

I responded to your post that, like most folks analysing this, including all the vehicle OEMs, battery swapping has been tried before and is unlikely to be widely applicable here in the US.

That is not a controversial position. I even pointed you at a market and an OEM (one of several) in China that is doing battery swapping at scale in a very different market.

Rather than acknowledging that you decided to double down and began insulting me, ending up with that old banal saying about the glass being half full or empty.

So let's move on, it's clear that it's a waste of electrons pointing out alternative views to yours. What would be the point in getting other perspectives on a topic?

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1994 Chinook Concourse
1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft
2015 Rpod 179 - sold


Posted By: StephenH
Date Posted: 30 Mar 2022 at 8:26am
I would like to point out that what we think of as established science today might not be tomorrow as we find out more. Is the climate changing? Yes. It is always changing. We have everything from the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period to the Ice Ages. Which is the perfect climate? These happened long before our industrial age. Then there is the Little Ice Age (  https://instaar.colorado.edu/research/projects/cause-and-onset-of-little-ice-age/ - https://instaar.colorado.edu/research/projects/cause-and-onset-of-little-ice-age/  ). How much of our warming is due to coming out of that still? Where is the equilibrium point that is the one for which we should aim? How do we get to it? If we were to have a couple of large volcanic eruptions of the Krakatoa scale, we would be back to talking about global cooling and how to keep that from happening. That was back in the 70's when talk was of spreading carbon on the ice to promote solar absorption to keep the earth from cooling. That appears to be quite foolish today. What we are being told today might appear to be equally foolish a few years down the road.

In any case, we probably need to get back to discussing the merits of various electric vehicles and whether they are suited for towing and not stay on climate which has already led to discord.


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StephenH
Happy is the man that findeth wisdom,...

http://www.rpod-owners.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=7712 - ouR escaPOD mods
Former RPod 179
Current Cherokee Grey Wolf 24 JS


Posted By: Pod People
Date Posted: 30 Mar 2022 at 9:14am
I consider myself to be normally intelligent and aware of the ecology,science and usefulness of energy technology on a layman's level-not professional.

My plan is to continue using an ICE vehicle for our towing and use a hybrid or EV  for in town and short trips. we have suitcase portable solar panels for the Rpod and use them all the time.  We have a passive solar room on the south side of our house which adds to our heat system. We tried to get roof top solar panels, but as Stephen noted, we are not willing to lose all of our trees in order to get the necessary exposure. We live in the country and use propane powered appliances.

so I think our overall energy plan is viable for the present-maybe not the optimum, but a livable,workable and affordable compromise that  works for us. I would be happy to change IF/WHEN those energy changes make financial sense and correlate with our lifestyle.

Safe travels
Vann




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Vann & Laura 2015 RPod 179
https://postimg.cc/0zwKrfB9">


Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 30 Mar 2022 at 3:12pm
As I said before, there are a lot of very smart engineers and scientists actually working now on solutions to reduce and eventually eliminate the use of fossil fuels.  The are coming up with new ideas all the time, even using concepts that may have been previously rejected as impractical because they found ways around the impediments.  In every form of alternate energy there are problems that have to be overcome, whether it is serious environmental damage from lithium and nickel mining, energy storage and portability, and so on.  I am optimistic that most of these problems can be overcome and am not going to reject any ideas until they have been fully explored and proven to be unworkable. 

Each advocate of some form of energy technology has his/her own perspective and biases.  Those opposed to nuclear energy, for example, point to the waste disposal problem and claim that it is insurmountable.  They may be right, but at this point the question is still open.  The same for fuel cell technology.  It is filled with issues that make it problematical, but it is worth the effort to keep on investigating it.  EV's are no different.  It is a technology in its infancy and we would be well advised to keep an open mind in regard to all possibilities.  Battery swapping certainly has its detractors and complexities, but it is premature to absolutely rule it out.  Everyday, people currently working in scientific fields are coming up with new approaches and it would be just plain foolish not to keep one's mind open to the possibility of new discoveries.  StephenH, is right when he observes that what we think of as settled science today may not be tomorrow.  




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Never leave footprints behind.
Fred & Maria Kearney
Sonoma 167RB
Our Pod 172
2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost


Posted By: Ciberpine
Date Posted: 30 Mar 2022 at 4:25pm
OG, I figured my post would stir a hornets nest.  All sides of a discussion must be considered.   Your term "climate change deniers" is a perjorative.  There are no such people.  My point above is that running through the whole discussion of EV and alternative energy sources, is this assumption that has become ingrained in our culture through popular media and government funded pronouncements that CO2 is BAD and if not quickly reduced, we are all doomed.  This, of course, is hubris and arrogance of the highest order.
I started the thread to ask about other's thoughts on an EV truck for long distance towing, and it has been a very good discussion.  Personal economic decisions are based on sound financials for the individual and delivery of function (value).  That is how a market economy functions.  I am glad to embrace the EV trend, but it must be based on sound economics, not emotional claptrap about how the sky is falling and we are all doomed if we don't embrace the current popular trend.
I appreciate all of the good information you have provided.


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Scott and Noreen
2017 R-Pod 190, 2011 Toyota Tundra
Pilgrims on the way to the Celestial City


Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 30 Mar 2022 at 7:36pm
Well I've certainly met people who deny the climate is changing. There are also people who deny the earth is round. So they exisf, all the physical evidence to the contrary. It is not perjorative to say that someone denies physical evidence if they do, just a statement of fact.

I haven't heard anyone on this forum say they believe either of those things. But really its ok with me if they did, I've long since learned that people believe all sorts of things which are contrary to evidence. We all have sent that.

In any event, I've been well aware of the need to make a shift in the energy economy as soon as possible since the late 1970s, hence my choice of a career in photovoltaics. That is not hubris and arrogance, it is my assessment of the implications of the climate science. I assure you that it had nothing to do with government funded pronouncements or the media hype, none of which existed then. Hardly anyone even knew what photovoltaics was.

I completely agree thst it's all about the economics. We had commercially available solar in the late 1970s, you could buy all you wanted for a mere $15 per watt (in 1980 dollars). Now it's about 50 cents a watt, in 2022 dollars. The work over that 40 plus year period was to achieve that cost reduction so that solar became economically competitive with fossil fuel alternatives. Once the basic economics were in place customers were able to excercize their emotions which in the end are critical to making a buy decision.

So as I said, I really don't mind if someone buys an EV because it's faster, quieter, cheaper, more convenient, gives what you feel is higher community status. reduces your exposure to price fluctuations, or even because its greener. All those attributes are the result of a lot of hard work by many smart people to make EVs attractive to a broad audience.

As for climate change, discussions regarding the science behind it are not political just because someone perhaps might want to make them so. Science is science, we should be able to discuss it here. Decisions regarding public policy are by definition political and so are out of bounds.

One cannot reasonably argue that a scientific development should not be actionable because the science might change. That simply becomes a justification for inaction. If a business leader took that viewpoint his board of directors would fire him immediately. Leadership requires making timely decisions without all the data you would like. Point in a direction and go based on the best data available. If you have to adjust your course later when more info turns up then you do that. The keys to success are being out in front, being right more often than wrong, and being able to quickly make course adjustments as more data becomes available.






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1994 Chinook Concourse
1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft
2015 Rpod 179 - sold


Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 31 Mar 2022 at 7:12am
LA, what I think you are failing to grasp is the power of volume manufacturing and incremental improvement to deliver spectacular results to the existing technology. You can call it economies of scale, Wright's law, or Moore's law but it works.

Take aviation. The first Wright flyer had a wing for lift, control surfaces for roll, pitch, and yaw, an ICE for power, and a properller for thrust. My airplane built a century later, has all those same attributes. It's just much faster and more efficient, and more comfortable and capable. But Wilbur and Orville would recognize it immediately. Their basic configuration is still the best one for light aircraft.

The solar cells made today, same basic technology as the ones we made 50 years ago. Wind turbines, ditto. Henry Ford would recognize our automobiles today as the Model T's direct descendents. IC's are still fabricated using the samevtyoe if Si substrates and photolithography techniques as in the 1970s. They're just phenomenology improved generation by generation until we are now at over 10 billion transistors in a microprocessor compared to tens of thousands in the 1970s.

To win new technologies have to do much better than beat the existing technology on the day they are envisioned. They have to beat the state of the art at the point in the future that the new tech ultimately reaches market. That is extremely difficult unless the incumbent tech has plateaued and is no longer a growth industry. Fossil fuel plants and ICE autos are in that category, hence the success of renewables now and the anticipated success of EVs in the very near future.

So while I remain interested in tracking the gee whiz announcements in battery engineering et al, I wouldnt put my money on those (if I had any to put). It's just so easy to get distracted by whatever new thing some startup is crowing about, to the point that that has become engrained in our culture and Americans have to a large degree lost our edge in the hard unspectacular work of manufacturing and incremental engineering improvements. We've largely ceded that work to Asia in my view, and that is a huge mistake that is and will cost us dearly, just as it did the UK post WW2.

For the record I did not say that I thought battery swapping was never going to work. I said it was only likely to be successful in certain markets where it might appeal to apartment dwellers or fleet operators. I even suggested you take a look at Nio's relatively successful battery swap program in urban China. Did you review that?




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1994 Chinook Concourse
1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft
2015 Rpod 179 - sold



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