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Elecgric Vehicles - F250 Lightning - Event Date: 16 Mar 2022

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Ciberpine View Drop Down
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    Posted: 30 Mar 2022 at 4:25pm
OG, I figured my post would stir a hornets nest.  All sides of a discussion must be considered.   Your term "climate change deniers" is a perjorative.  There are no such people.  My point above is that running through the whole discussion of EV and alternative energy sources, is this assumption that has become ingrained in our culture through popular media and government funded pronouncements that CO2 is BAD and if not quickly reduced, we are all doomed.  This, of course, is hubris and arrogance of the highest order.
I started the thread to ask about other's thoughts on an EV truck for long distance towing, and it has been a very good discussion.  Personal economic decisions are based on sound financials for the individual and delivery of function (value).  That is how a market economy functions.  I am glad to embrace the EV trend, but it must be based on sound economics, not emotional claptrap about how the sky is falling and we are all doomed if we don't embrace the current popular trend.
I appreciate all of the good information you have provided.
Scott and Noreen
2017 R-Pod 190, 2011 Toyota Tundra
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Post Options Post Options   Quote offgrid Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Mar 2022 at 7:36pm
Well I've certainly met people who deny the climate is changing. There are also people who deny the earth is round. So they exisf, all the physical evidence to the contrary. It is not perjorative to say that someone denies physical evidence if they do, just a statement of fact.

I haven't heard anyone on this forum say they believe either of those things. But really its ok with me if they did, I've long since learned that people believe all sorts of things which are contrary to evidence. We all have sent that.

In any event, I've been well aware of the need to make a shift in the energy economy as soon as possible since the late 1970s, hence my choice of a career in photovoltaics. That is not hubris and arrogance, it is my assessment of the implications of the climate science. I assure you that it had nothing to do with government funded pronouncements or the media hype, none of which existed then. Hardly anyone even knew what photovoltaics was.

I completely agree thst it's all about the economics. We had commercially available solar in the late 1970s, you could buy all you wanted for a mere $15 per watt (in 1980 dollars). Now it's about 50 cents a watt, in 2022 dollars. The work over that 40 plus year period was to achieve that cost reduction so that solar became economically competitive with fossil fuel alternatives. Once the basic economics were in place customers were able to excercize their emotions which in the end are critical to making a buy decision.

So as I said, I really don't mind if someone buys an EV because it's faster, quieter, cheaper, more convenient, gives what you feel is higher community status. reduces your exposure to price fluctuations, or even because its greener. All those attributes are the result of a lot of hard work by many smart people to make EVs attractive to a broad audience.

As for climate change, discussions regarding the science behind it are not political just because someone perhaps might want to make them so. Science is science, we should be able to discuss it here. Decisions regarding public policy are by definition political and so are out of bounds.

One cannot reasonably argue that a scientific development should not be actionable because the science might change. That simply becomes a justification for inaction. If a business leader took that viewpoint his board of directors would fire him immediately. Leadership requires making timely decisions without all the data you would like. Point in a direction and go based on the best data available. If you have to adjust your course later when more info turns up then you do that. The keys to success are being out in front, being right more often than wrong, and being able to quickly make course adjustments as more data becomes available.




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Post Options Post Options   Quote offgrid Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 Mar 2022 at 7:12am
LA, what I think you are failing to grasp is the power of volume manufacturing and incremental improvement to deliver spectacular results to the existing technology. You can call it economies of scale, Wright's law, or Moore's law but it works.

Take aviation. The first Wright flyer had a wing for lift, control surfaces for roll, pitch, and yaw, an ICE for power, and a properller for thrust. My airplane built a century later, has all those same attributes. It's just much faster and more efficient, and more comfortable and capable. But Wilbur and Orville would recognize it immediately. Their basic configuration is still the best one for light aircraft.

The solar cells made today, same basic technology as the ones we made 50 years ago. Wind turbines, ditto. Henry Ford would recognize our automobiles today as the Model T's direct descendents. IC's are still fabricated using the samevtyoe if Si substrates and photolithography techniques as in the 1970s. They're just phenomenology improved generation by generation until we are now at over 10 billion transistors in a microprocessor compared to tens of thousands in the 1970s.

To win new technologies have to do much better than beat the existing technology on the day they are envisioned. They have to beat the state of the art at the point in the future that the new tech ultimately reaches market. That is extremely difficult unless the incumbent tech has plateaued and is no longer a growth industry. Fossil fuel plants and ICE autos are in that category, hence the success of renewables now and the anticipated success of EVs in the very near future.

So while I remain interested in tracking the gee whiz announcements in battery engineering et al, I wouldnt put my money on those (if I had any to put). It's just so easy to get distracted by whatever new thing some startup is crowing about, to the point that that has become engrained in our culture and Americans have to a large degree lost our edge in the hard unspectacular work of manufacturing and incremental engineering improvements. We've largely ceded that work to Asia in my view, and that is a huge mistake that is and will cost us dearly, just as it did the UK post WW2.

For the record I did not say that I thought battery swapping was never going to work. I said it was only likely to be successful in certain markets where it might appeal to apartment dwellers or fleet operators. I even suggested you take a look at Nio's relatively successful battery swap program in urban China. Did you review that?


1994 Chinook Concourse
1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft
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